383
FXUS65 KGGW 042023
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
223 PM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

1) Expect daily chances for scattered thunderstorms through this
weekend, especially during the afternoon and evening hours.

2) Conditions are expected to trend toward hot and dry next week
with upper level ridging setting up.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Active upper level northwest flow over the Northern High Plains
will continue daily chances for showers and thunderstorms.
Although any storm may produce brief downpours, the lack of shear
is expected to limit the potential for sustained updrafts. Thus,
mostly ordinary cell convection is expected.

Ensembles continue to support a large upper level ridge becoming
established over the CONUS next week. This suggests that the
pattern will shift toward drier weather conditions as temperatures
gradually return to near normal, and eventually above normal.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

While confidence is low on precise timing and placement of any
thunderstorms, confidence is high on an overall active weather
pattern remaining in place this week with growing confidence on
hot and dry weather next week. The NBM was largely followed which
captured expected trends rather well.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected overall tonight. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms may come with MVFR ceilings and produce IFR
visibilities if tracking directly over a taf site.

Northwest winds will range between 10 and 20 kts, gusting to 25
kts through 03Z, decreasing to under 10 kts after 03Z.


&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow