297
FXUS64 KFWD 060002
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
702 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
Sub-severe thunderstorms are ongoing in portions of Central Texas
this evening near and just behind a consolidated southward-moving
front/outflow boundary. This activity has been supported largely
by diurnal instability and will continue to wane with loss of
heating over the next couple of hours. Low chances for showers and
thunderstorms will be maintained in the forecast overnight in
parts of Central and East Texas where warm advection in the
vicinity of the 850-700mb frontal surface will exist. However,
convective coverage should be very low or perhaps even nonexistent
contingent on the degree of lift and available instability. No
noteworthy adjustments were made to Saturday`s forecast from
trends discussed below, and we`ll have to monitor surface boundary
locations which will determine which areas of our CWA may be
subject to redevelopment during the daytime.

-Stalley

Previous Discussion:
/This Afternoon through Saturday Night/

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across parts of North
Texas this afternoon as an outflow boundary pushes south of the
I-20 corridor. This activity is expected to increase in coverage
through the afternoon mainly along and just north of this
boundary. Latest RAP objective analysis indicates moderate
instability with MLCAPE >2000 J/kg throughout much of our Central
TX counties which will support locally robust updrafts. While
widespread severe weather is not expected, a few strong storms
could produce some gusty winds. Farther north, widespread rainfall
continues across northwest Texas closer to the actual cold
frontal boundary where weak synoptic ascent is also present thanks
to a subtle mid level shortwave. For the remainder of the
afternoon, scattered thunderstorms will continue with the highest
chances from the Metroplex south and west. PW values near 2 inches
and generally weak wind fields suggest that locally heavy rainfall
will be possible through the afternoon and early evening. Activity
should start to diminish in coverage later this evening with loss
of heating. We`ll maintain some low PoPs through the overnight
hours given the proximity of the surface boundaries and generally
moist airmass in place.

On Saturday, the frontal boundary should sag southward into
Central TX where a re-invigoration of convection should occur
through the early afternoon as we heat up and destabilize. We`ll
show increasing PoPs into the afternoon with coverage 40-50%. High
temperatures should be held in check by continued cloud cover and
rain chances with highs topping out in the lower 90s.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 339 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024/
/Next Week/

Our cold front will retreat north as a warm front on Sunday as a
shortwave trough approaches from the northwest and a lee surface
trough strengthens, with the boundary eventually stalling across
Oklahoma. This will heat things up temporarily, with afternoon
highs climbing into the mid and upper 90s. Dewpoints in the lower
70s will produce max heat index values in the 100 to 105 degree
range. A few spots may exceed 105, particularly in the southeast
where the influx of tropical moisture associated with Beryl could
make conditions exceptionally humid. At this time, however, it
looks like the localized nature and brief time-frame of these
conditions will likely preclude the need for a Heat Advisory.

For those who missed out on rainfall with the ongoing system,
more opportunities will arrive next week as aforementioned
shortwave emerges in the Plains, the front returns south as a cold
front, and Tropical Cyclone Beryl approaches from the south. Rain
chances associated with the front will be mainly Sunday night
through Monday, while those associated with the tropical system
will be primarily Monday through Tuesday. This scenario is based
on the latest operational model solutions (regarding the movement
of Beryl), which match closely with the official NHC forecast.

The severe weather threat appears low at this time, though there
could be some strong winds late Sunday/early Monday as convection
initiating along the front in Oklahoma approaches, particularly if
upscale growth takes place and a cold pool develops. Heavy rain
will become the main concern as Beryl begins to interact with the
slow moving front in the Monday-Tuesday period. Eastern portions
of Central Texas will be nearest the track of Beryl and will have
the best potential of seeing heavy rain. Another thing to keep in
mind will be the potential brief spin-up tornadoes, which could
occur in rain bands where any surface instability is attained.

Showers and storms will end from west to east late Tuesday-Wednesday
as the remnants of Beryl get picked up by another shortwave
trough and carried northeast into the Mississippi Valley. Weak
troughing will linger overhead in the wake of the tropical system,
bringing near to slightly below normal temperatures and low rain
chances Wednesday through next weekend.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00z TAFs/

Showers and thunderstorms are exiting the TAF sites to the east,
with only lingering light rain present as of 00z. A couple of in-
cloud lightning flashes can`t be ruled out near the terminals for
another hour or so this evening before all convective activity
comes to an end after sunset. VFR skies and a north/northeast wind
will prevail thereafter with multiple VFR cloud decks present
overnight. Convective redevelopment is possible in parts of
Central and East Texas tomorrow afternoon depending on the
location of any surface boundaries during peak heating, but
chances for convection at any of the TAF sites are too low to
introduce into the forecast at this time. Winds should eventually
return to ESE late tomorrow afternoon or evening.

-Stalley

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    75  93  77  96  75 /  20  20   5  20  30
Waco                74  93  76  95  76 /  40  40   5  10  20
Paris               71  93  71  92  71 /  20  10   5  30  40
Denton              71  94  74  96  72 /  20  20   5  20  30
McKinney            72  93  74  95  72 /  20  20   5  20  30
Dallas              75  94  76  96  75 /  30  20   5  20  30
Terrell             73  93  74  94  73 /  40  20   5  20  20
Corsicana           75  93  76  95  76 /  50  40   5  20  20
Temple              74  93  74  96  76 /  20  40  10  10  10
Mineral Wells       70  93  72  96  72 /  20  20   5  10  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$