341
FXUS64 KFWD 060655
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
155 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Today and Tonight/

This morning will start on the cool side of average for most in
the wake of yesterday`s cold front. Parts of western North Texas
will start the day 7-10 degrees below average with lows in the mid
60s while the rest of the area starts in the low to mid 70s.
Yesterday`s cold front was able to move as far south as the Hill
Country, but it will start to mix out this afternoon, then fully
wash out tonight/early Sunday morning. Unfortunately, this means
we`ll return to near seasonal norms this afternoon with highs
topping out in the low 90s.

Meager mid-level ascent around 700 mb should develop a few showers
across the area early this morning. Limited instability should
keep the threat of lightning low. Scattered showers and storms are
expected to develop this afternoon across Central Texas, mainly in
the vicinity of the surface front. All storms should end with the
loss of heating this evening.

South flow will return tonight and start to draw warm, moist air
north in advance of our next weather-maker expected to move into
the area Sunday night into Monday.

Bonnette

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 339 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024/
/Next Week/

Our cold front will retreat north as a warm front on Sunday as a
shortwave trough approaches from the northwest and a lee surface
trough strengthens, with the boundary eventually stalling across
Oklahoma. This will heat things up temporarily, with afternoon
highs climbing into the mid and upper 90s. Dewpoints in the lower
70s will produce max heat index values in the 100 to 105 degree
range. A few spots may exceed 105, particularly in the southeast
where the influx of tropical moisture associated with Beryl could
make conditions exceptionally humid. At this time, however, it
looks like the localized nature and brief time-frame of these
conditions will likely preclude the need for a Heat Advisory.

For those who missed out on rainfall with the ongoing system,
more opportunities will arrive next week as aforementioned
shortwave emerges in the Plains, the front returns south as a cold
front, and Tropical Cyclone Beryl approaches from the south. Rain
chances associated with the front will be mainly Sunday night
through Monday, while those associated with the tropical system
will be primarily Monday through Tuesday. This scenario is based
on the latest operational model solutions (regarding the movement
of Beryl), which match closely with the official NHC forecast.

The severe weather threat appears low at this time, though there
could be some strong winds late Sunday/early Monday as convection
initiating along the front in Oklahoma approaches, particularly if
upscale growth takes place and a cold pool develops. Heavy rain
will become the main concern as Beryl begins to interact with the
slow moving front in the Monday-Tuesday period. Eastern portions
of Central Texas will be nearest the track of Beryl and will have
the best potential of seeing heavy rain. Another thing to keep in
mind will be the potential brief spin-up tornadoes, which could
occur in rain bands where any surface instability is attained.

Showers and storms will end from west to east late Tuesday-Wednesday
as the remnants of Beryl get picked up by another shortwave
trough and carried northeast into the Mississippi Valley. Weak
troughing will linger overhead in the wake of the tropical system,
bringing near to slightly below normal temperatures and low rain
chances Wednesday through next weekend.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06Z TAFs/

VFR and light north flow will prevail for most of the day. A SCT
to BKN cloud deck around 10-15 kft will develop a few showers
early this morning with most of this activity remaining south/west
of D10. These showers should brush by ACT near/after sunrise this
morning. A few hour lull in precip activity is expected until
scattered storms develop this afternoon near the cold front south
and east of ACT (and D10). The chance of a storm impacting ACT is
around 10%, so VCTS was not included in the TAF.

Light south flow will return to the D10 terminals this afternoon,
and this evening at ACT.

Bonnette

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    71  93  77  96  75 /  40  10   0  20  30
Waco                66  92  76  95  76 /  40  30   5  10  20
Paris               69  93  72  92  71 /  10  10   0  30  40
Denton              65  93  75  96  72 /  40  10   0  20  30
McKinney            70  92  74  95  72 /  40  10   0  20  30
Dallas              72  93  78  96  75 /  50  10   0  20  30
Terrell             71  93  74  94  73 /  40  20   5  20  20
Corsicana           71  93  76  95  76 /  50  30   5  20  20
Temple              68  93  75  96  76 /  20  40  10  10  10
Mineral Wells       63  93  72  96  72 /  20  10   0  10  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$