424
FXUS64 KFWD 041743
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1243 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/This Afternoon though Friday Night/

Hot and humid conditions continue this afternoon but changes are
on the way. Temperatures at this hour have climbed into the lower
90s with heat indices just above 100 degrees. We`ll top out with
actual air temperatures just above 100 later this afternoon.
Farther to our north, a cold front is draped across northern
Oklahoma and will continue to slide south through the afternoon as
stronger ridging shifts eastward and a shortwave digs through the
Central Plains. Scattered thunderstorms will develop later this
afternoon to our north and drift toward the Red River after dark.
The consensus among the short term guidance is that robust
convection to our north will send an outflow boundary southward
after midnight with the main line of storms weakening. Renewed
convective development will occur along this boundary and the
actual cold front on Friday morning mainly north of I-20. This
activity should drift south through the I-20 corridor through
midday with additional storms developing farther south later in
the day. We will also be watching the low potential that
thunderstorms don`t actually weaken overnight tonight and drift
southward, entering North Texas after midnight and continuing
through the early morning hours. Given this is the lower
probability scenario, we`ve raised PoPs on Friday to 40-60%
across the I-20 corridor with PoPs shifting southward through the
day. Most of the shower and thunderstorm activity will be
diurnally driven with a decrease in activity Friday evening and
night.

Along with the increased rain chances and cloud cover,
temperatures will be considerably cooler than the last several
days with highs topping out in the lower 90s in most locations.
Some areas closer to the Red River may remain in the 80s. A period
of cooler and more unsettled weather looks to continue into early
next week.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 319 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024/
Update:
No significant changes were made to the previous forecast, thus,
the weather discussion below is still valid. A cold front pushing
into North Texas on Friday along with disturbances passing through
the weak NW flow aloft will lead to almost daily rainfall chances
for most areas and near to below normal temperatures for all
areas through Day 7/Wednesday. Current forecast precipitation
totals for this period will generally range from 0.5-1.0 inch
across North Texas and 1.0-2.0 inches across Central Texas.

12

Previous Discussion:
/Thursday Evening Through the Middle of Next Week/

After two weeks of summer heat, the 4th of July will be the last
day with triple-digit temperatures for the foreseeable future. A
pattern shift will replace the heat with increased cloud cover,
rain chances, and below normal daytime temperatures that will
continue well into next week.

The transition may begin as early as Thursday evening when
showers and storms associated with an approaching cold front could
enter our northwest counties. But even in those areas, holiday
festivities are unlikely to be adversely impacted. Some of the
activity may survive through the night as the front enters North
Texas, but much of the region will have to wait until the daylight
hours Friday for renewed development along the boundary. Weak
shear should maintain a disorganized convective mode, and the
severe potential remains low. However, adequate destabilization
across Central and East Texas Friday afternoon could allow for a
few strong storms, particularly if the front or outflow boundaries
can reach those areas that reach the upper 90s one final time.
Our prolonged rain-free period should limit the flood potential,
but slow storm movement and precipitable water values topping 2
inches could yield isolated instances of heavy rainfall.

As is often the case with mid-summer fronts, the boundary will
steadily lose its definition on Saturday. However, it may still be
able to focus convective initiation Saturday afternoon, especially
if previous activity helps to enhance the boundary. Seasonal
southerly flow will regain control on Sunday when abundant
sunshine will push daytime temperatures back closer to normal
values. With little inhibition, a few afternoon showers and storms
may develop Sunday afternoon. But the more organized convection
will be in the Central Plains, the resulting MCS making a surge at
North Texas late Sunday night into Monday morning. This could
bring widespread rain to the region Monday, which would then be a
remarkably mild day.

Hurricane Beryl will spend the weekend crossing the Gulf of Mexico
along the northern edge of the Bay of Campeche. While it may
remain within the tropical easterlies, it could also recurve
toward the col atop the Lone Star State. Guidance diverges, with
ECMWF ensemble members clustered around a second Mexico landfall
and GEFS members favoring Texas. The GEPS (Canadian ensembles) are
a compromise between the two, matching both the official NHC
forecast and a majority of other dynamic model solutions that keep
Beryl`s center south of Brownsville. However, the trend has been
steadily northward with all available guidance. This is still
several days away, but a more northerly path could bring Beryl`s
post-landfall deluge to North and Central Texas. We will continue
to assess this potential as Beryl approaches.

25

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

VFR will prevail this afternoon and evening with south winds
around 10 kt but a cold front will approach the region later
tonight. Thunderstorms should develop along a cold front to the
north of the D10 airspace later this afternoon with most of the
activity remaining tied to the frontal boundary. This front will
slide southward into North Texas on Friday with scattered
showers/storms becoming more likely Friday morning through midday.
A wind shift to the north-northeast will accompany the frontal
boundary. Outside of any convective areas, VFR will prevail.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth   100  79  91  75  93 /   0  20  60  20  20
Waco                99  77  95  75  92 /   0   5  50  20  40
Paris               98  75  93  71  93 /   0  40  40  10  20
Denton             102  76  90  72  93 /   0  30  60  10  20
McKinney           100  77  90  73  93 /   0  30  60  10  20
Dallas             101  79  92  76  93 /   0  20  60  20  20
Terrell             98  77  91  72  92 /   0  20  50  20  20
Corsicana          100  78  94  75  93 /   0  10  40  20  30
Temple              99  76  96  75  93 /   0   0  30  20  40
Mineral Wells      102  76  91  71  91 /   0  20  60  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-131>135-144>148-158>162-174-175.

&&

$$