166
FXUS64 KFWD 051111
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
611 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:

No major changes were made to the forecast this morning after
updating it with the latest data.

Bonnette

Previous Discussion:
/Today and Tonight/

A summertime cold front is expected to move across the region
today, bringing an end to the season`s first heat wave. As is
typical with any front at this time of the year, showers and
thunderstorms will accompany the front. Surface dew point analysis
indicates that the front is still in northern Oklahoma/West Texas,
but an outflow boundary from earlier convection has created a
northerly wind shift across parts of North Texas early this
morning. A cluster of showers and storms will develop near/just
behind the cold front over West Texas/Western Oklahoma in the pre-
dawn hours that will help drive the front (and an attendant strong
outflow boundary) south.

Largely disorganized convection will accompany the front as it
moves across the region today. The front should move into Central
Texas late in the day, then stall and start to wash out late
tonight and Saturday. The severe threat today is low, but not
zero. This is particularly for areas south of I-20 where diurnal
destabilization will favor a <5% chance of damaging wind gusts
this afternoon. Today`s storms will be very efficient rain makers,
so if a storm develops over any urban corridors, short-lived minor
flooding will be likely. Most of the convection will wane with the
loss of heating this evening. A resurgence over West Texas is
expected late tonight into early Saturday morning. Most of the
precip will remain to our west, but there is a 30-40% chance of
showers in the pre-dawn hours Saturday.

Most of North Texas` temperatures this afternoon will be 10-15
degrees below yesterday. The same can not be said for Central
Texas where highs are still expected to peak in the mid to upper
90s. Heat index values will climb near our Heat Advisory criteria,
but lack of confidence regarding when the cold front/outflow moves
through has precluded our issuance of a Heat Advisory for any part
of our area.

Bonnette

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 349 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024/
Update:
The forecast trends discussed below remain on track with no
notable departures from the anticipated pattern in the evening
guidance. All eyes will be on the Gulf of Mexico through the
weekend and into early next week as Hurricane Beryl moves around
the southern and western periphery of the weakening ridge over the
Southeast. Though uncertainty continues in the forecast track,
strength and speed of Beryl, we are beginning to see a moderate
uptick in cumulative rainfall estimates for next week. In general,
1 to 3 inches of rainfall is expected through Thursday night with
lesser amounts west of Highway 281. There is currently about a
10% chance of rainfall totals exceeding 4 inches across portions
of Central Texas. These amounts have been and will likely continue
to trend higher in response to inland track adjustments over the
next few days.

12

Previous Discussion:
/Saturday Through Next Week/

After two full weeks dominated by oppressive ridging, a
significant pattern shift is underway. Texas will spend the next
several days underneath a col between a pair of ridges, one in the
West and another over the Southeast. This will mean increased
cloud cover and rain chances with below normal daytime
temperatures. This extended period of unsettled weather will
continue throughout the upcoming week, during which we may also
see impacts from a tropical system.

The aforementioned frontal boundary may linger on Saturday, a
weak disturbance aloft aiding in renewed development throughout
the daylight hours, more likely south of the I-20 corridor. With
the weakness aloft, another frontal system will dive into the
Central Plains this weekend. Although well north of us, its
associated surface low will return southerly winds to North and
Central Texas on Sunday, dissolving what`s left of our aging
front. This warm advection and increasing insolation will push
daytime temperatures back closer to normal values on Sunday. With
little inhibition, a few afternoon showers and storms may develop
Sunday afternoon within the deeper moisture across East Texas. The
more organized convection will be associated with the frontal
boundary in the Central Plains, the resulting MCS making a surge
at North Texas late Sunday night into Monday morning. Despite
seasonally tepid inflow, guidance is still convinced this will
occur. If so, it could bring widespread rain to the region on
Monday, which would then be a remarkably mild day.

Hurricane Beryl will spend the weekend crossing the Gulf of Mexico
along the northern edge of the Bay of Campeche. With weak steering
flow, there remains appropriate spread among ensemble members. But
with the West Coast ridging extended deep into the tropics, it`s
becoming increasingly likely that our col will be the favored
direction. Despite reasonable uncertainty at this time scale,
guidance is coming into better agreement with a landfall near the
mouth of the Rio Grande Monday morning. Beryl`s remnants would
then spread northward, bringing enhanced rain chances to North
and Central Texas Tuesday and Wednesday. It`s too early to discuss
amounts or locations, but this should further diminish our
negative mid-level height anomalies, maintaining our unseasonally
mild/wet pattern.

25

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

Light and variable winds will continue for the next couple hours
until a pronounced northerly wind shift moves through around mid-
morning.

Several clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing across West Texas
and Oklahoma that will make a run at our TAF terminals today. Our
confidence regarding the timing of the thunderstorms remains low,
however the threat of direct terminal impacts is high enough to
warrant a TEMPO for on-station TS early this afternoon. The
current timing is largely a prog of the cluster of storms near
Lawton since the CAM guidance does not have a good handle on the
ongoing convection. There should be a lull in convective activity
this evening, but scattered showers are possible in the early
morning hours toward the tail-end of the TAF period.

Bonnette

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    90  75  92  76  95 /  50  30  20   0  20
Waco                95  76  92  75  95 /  40  30  40   5  20
Paris               90  71  92  71  92 /  40  20  20   5  20
Denton              89  72  92  73  95 /  50  20  20   5  20
McKinney            90  72  92  73  94 /  50  30  20   5  20
Dallas              92  76  92  76  96 /  50  30  20   5  20
Terrell             91  73  91  73  93 /  50  30  30   5  20
Corsicana           95  76  93  76  95 /  50  30  40   5  20
Temple              98  75  94  75  96 /  30  20  40  10  20
Mineral Wells       89  72  91  72  95 /  60  30  20   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$