Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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344 FXUS64 KFWD 080800 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 300 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 ...New Long Term... .SHORT TERM... /Issued 231 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024/ /Monday and Tuesday/ Key Messages: - Hurricane Beryl will make landfall before sunrise this morning and impact the eastern half of our forecast area today. - The main impact today will be heavy rain and flooding mainly for areas east of I-45...Our easternmost 1-2 rows of counties are forecast to receive between 4-7" of rain with isolated totals of 10" today. - 20-30 mph winds with gusts up to 40 mph is expected for parts of eastern Central Texas this afternoon. The remainder of the area will be gusty, but below our Wind Advisory criteria. - Scattered showers and storms are forecast to develop west of the track of Beryl, mainly across North Texas. This precip will be very hit/miss with localized areas receiving 2-4" of rain while areas a few miles away receive less than 0.25" of rain. - Beryl will move into East Texas/Arkansas tonight, with all precip exiting our area Tuesday morning. Discussion: Pre-Dawn Monday... 2 outflow boundaries will move across North Texas in the pre-dawn hours. One is oriented east-west moving through the Metroplex and I-20 corridor, and the other is oriented north-south moving into western North Texas. Scattered showers have developed behind the east-west outflow with a low threat of lightning. The north-south boundary has healthier convection; particularly where it crosses the east-west boundary. A gradual weakening of this convection is expected over the next few hours as it moves into a narrow band of subsidence between the storms to the west and Hurricane Beryl near the Gulf Coast. Meanwhile, mid-level lift ahead of Hurricane Beryl is starting to develop scattered showers over East Texas that will continue through the morning. Monday and Tuesday... By daybreak, Beryl should be a Tropical Storm near Houston with a shield of moderate to heavy rain moving into our eastern Central Texas counties. The aforementioned scattered showers will also be ongoing further north over North and East Texas, and a cluster of storms is expected to be ongoing over western North Texas/southern Oklahoma. Beryl will move north-northeast today, clipping Leon and Anderson counties this afternoon. The rain shield will advance well north and west of the center of the track, particularly this afternoon when the system starts to transition to sub-tropical. This will create quite a gradient in precipitation, with our eastern 1-2 rows of counties (closest to the track) receiving between 4-7" of rain and isolated areas receiving 10". Most areas west of I-35 can expect lower totals, but still between 1-3". Just west of the rain shield, less than 0.25" of rain is expected (for the most part--more on that below). How far west the steady rain shield will settle is still uncertain, but most of the high-res guidance ends it around the I-35 corridor. To illustrate the point...most CAM guidance has the eastern Metroplex getting ~10 hours of steady rain, while areas west of the D/FW Airport receive about an hour or less of rain all day. We have issued a Flood Watch for most of our eastern counties that starts this morning and ends tonight. Areas within the watch have a high risk of flooding today...particularly for any low-lying and flood-prone locations east of I-45. Be prepared to take action if you receive a warning. If traveling, Turn around, don`t drown if you encounter flooded roads. We briefly mentioned a cluster of storms ongoing over western North Texas early this morning. This activity is taking place in a broad area of large-scale ascent ahead of a potent shortwave trough that will swing across Texas today. This cluster should weaken after sunrise, with scattered showers and storms developing later this morning into the afternoon along remnant mesoscale boundaries. Beryl will still have a strong influence on where these develop, creating north-south oriented bands of moderate to heavy rain. We expect 2-4" of rain to fall within these convective bands. Areas outside of these bands will receive much less rain, generally less than 0.25" Beryl will move into East Texas late this afternoon, then Arkansas tonight. Any ongoing precipitation away from the center of the track (the convective bands) should end within a couple hours of sunset. The rain near the center of Beryl will move out of our area before sunrise Tuesday. While the shortwave trough will create a messy pattern today, it will result in much quieter weather tomorrow. We have trimmed PoPs out of most of the area, with only a 20% chance of showers in the afternoon across the eastern and southern fringe of our forecast area. Bonnette && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Wednesday And Beyond/ At the onset of the extended period, North and Central Texas will be located on the fringes of a persistent upper ridge to the west and a deamplifying upper trough lifting from the Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes. The combination of the lingering warm and humid airmass, weak/broad high pressure at the surface, and modest mid/upper level flow will favor a pattern of primarily diurnal convection through Friday and into the weekend. Scattered daytime thunderstorms developing along the sea breeze as well as any other remnant boundaries will generally focus the best rain chances across Central Texas through the period leaving most of North Texas precipitation-free for the remainder of the week. Temperatures will be on the rise as southerly surface winds return, with afternoon temperatures quickly climbing into the mid to upper 90s. Unfortunately this puts us on track for the re- emergence of triple digit heat by the end of the weekend. With no means to dry out the boundary layer, humidity is also going to be a problem with peak heat index values likely approaching Heat Advisory criteria across parts of the area late weekend and into the following week. 12 && .AVIATION... /Issued 115 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024/ /06Z TAFs/ A south-moving outflow will move through the D10 TAF terminals within the first hour of the TAF period and bring a couple hours of gusty north flow. Scattered showers are developing behind the outflow. The thunder potential with this activity is about 20%, so VCTS was not included with this wind shift. There is another line of storms moving into the area from the west that will approach D10 around 10Z. While the line should weaken as it interacts with the previously mentioned outflow, there is a chance it doesn`t and VCTS will have to be added for the 10-13Z timeframe. Hurricane Beryl will move inland today, with a shield of moderate to heavy rain near the center of the track. West of the storm over North Texas, scattered storms will develop by mid-morning. VCTS is included in the TAFs due to this activity, but by the time Beryl`s rain shield moves in early this afternoon, the thunder potential lowers quite a bit. How far west the rain shield will settle is still uncertain, with most of the high-res guidance bisecting D10. For instance, DAL is forecast to get ~10 hours of steady rain and AFW/FTW getting no more than 1 hour of rain all day. Future TAFs can further attempt to discern the placement of the rain shield, but wobbles left/right in the track of Beryl are still likely until it makes landfall. Beryl should exit to the NE late in the day, leaving the region under a shroud of MVFR ceilings for the remainder of the TAF period. Bonnette && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 86 70 90 72 95 / 90 40 10 5 5 Waco 85 70 92 71 94 / 80 30 10 5 10 Paris 84 68 86 67 91 / 100 100 40 5 5 Denton 86 68 90 68 95 / 80 30 5 5 0 McKinney 85 69 88 68 94 / 100 80 10 5 5 Dallas 87 71 91 72 95 / 90 60 10 5 5 Terrell 83 69 89 68 92 / 100 90 10 5 5 Corsicana 83 71 90 72 94 / 100 90 10 5 5 Temple 85 70 93 71 95 / 70 20 20 5 10 Mineral Wells 88 68 91 67 95 / 60 10 5 0 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT this morning through Tuesday morning for TXZ095-105>107-121>123-135-146>148-160>162-174-175. && $$