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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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008 FXUS64 KFWD 141214 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 714 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 ...New Aviation, Short Term... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ Update: All forecast trends discussed below remain on track, and no significant adjustments were needed with this morning`s update. Decent mixing out of surface dewpoints during peak heating should largely keep maximum heat index values below Heat Advisory criteria this afternoon. Dunn Previous Discussion: /Overnight through Monday/ Earlier showers and thunderstorms have all dissipated across North and Central Texas this evening with mostly clear skies and warm conditions prevailing. We`ll see south winds 5-10 mph overnight with temperatures only falling into the mid 70s. On Sunday, stronger ridging that has been centered over the western CONUS will shift a little farther eastward into the Plains accompanied by some drier air. This will mean an upward tick in temperatures through the afternoon, although deeper mixing should allow dewpoints to fall into the mid/upper 60s. With high temperatures in the upper 90s, we`ll see heat indices approach 105 in a few locations. Rainfall chances will be considerably lower on Sunday afternoon with drier air replacing the deeper moisture we had on Saturday. We still can`t rule out an isolated storm across our far eastern our southeastern counties, but PoPs will generally be 10% or less. The warmth will continue on Monday with several locations at or just above 100 degrees along with near zero rain chances. Heat indices may creep up above 105 in several locations and we`ll be assessing the need for a Heat Advisory across parts of North Texas. Dunn && .LONG TERM... /Issued 231 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024/ /Tuesday and Beyond/ North and Central Texas will remain under the influence of a strong mid-level ridge centered over New Mexico through Wednesday. Expect the hottest temperatures of the week Tuesday and Wednesday with afternoon highs exceeding the century mark across much of North Texas. Heat Advisory criteria will likely be met in several locations Tuesday afternoon becoming more widespread Wednesday afternoon with an increase in boundary-level moisture. A shortwave trough will dig south across the Plains late Wednesday into Thursday sending an associated cold front into North Texas by Wednesday evening. This frontal boundary along with a series of vorticity maxima rounding about the base of the mid-level trough will provide support for scattered thunderstorms Wednesday night through the end of the work week. A gradual north to south progression of thunderstorm activity is expected as the boundary slowly pushes south and mixes out over Central Texas late Thursday into early Friday. Relatively weak flow aloft will keep the threat for severe weather on the lower end, but a few more robust storms capable of producing isolated severe wind gusts will be possible, especially south of I-20 where a plume of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE is forecasted to reside. In general, 0.2"-0.5" of rainfall is expected through Friday with 10% of locations observing greater than 1.5". Increased cloudiness, precipitation, and northerly flow behind the front will drop temperatures into the upper 80s to low 90s. The general model consensus is that the Southern Plains will remain under the influence of upper troughing through the weekend keeping an unsettled weather pattern over our region. This lines up well with the Climate Prediction Center`s 6-10 Day Outlook highlighting a greater probability for above-normal precipitation and below-normal temperatures across North and Central Texas next weekend. Langfeld && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /12Z TAFs/ VFR will prevail through the period with southerly winds around 10 kt. No significant aviation concerns are expected through Monday. Dunn && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 98 80 100 81 100 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 98 76 100 76 99 / 0 5 0 0 0 Paris 96 76 97 77 96 / 10 5 0 0 0 Denton 99 77 101 79 102 / 0 0 0 0 0 McKinney 98 78 100 79 100 / 0 5 0 0 0 Dallas 100 80 102 81 101 / 0 5 0 0 0 Terrell 95 76 98 77 98 / 5 5 0 0 0 Corsicana 97 76 99 78 98 / 5 5 0 0 0 Temple 95 74 98 74 99 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 99 74 101 77 102 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$