Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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568 FXUS64 KFWD 022009 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 309 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 ...New Long Term... .SHORT TERM... /Issued 1132 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024/ /This afternoon through Wednesday/ Excessive heat and humidity will remain through mid-week with strong ridging aloft, plenty of sun, and a constant supply of Gulf moisture. Afternoon temperatures will hover around 100 degrees with the hottest temperatures in the west and the highest humidity in the east. Afternoon heat index values will reach between 105 and 110 overall, but some locations in the east could exceed 110 briefly this afternoon. We will maintain the Excessive Heat Warning in the east with a Heat Advisory for most other locations through the afternoon. We will wait for the late afternoon forecast issuance to extend/change any heat products for tomorrow. New guidance coming in suggests that afternoon heat index values will be below 110 in nearly all locations, so we may not need to extend the Excessive Heat Warning, but we will need a Heat Advisory for most of the forecast area. Subsidence under the ridge should suppress all convection, but a few storms may move up from South Texas on the sea breeze Wednesday afternoon and approach the far southeast zones. 79 && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Independence Day Through Next Week/ The mid-level ridge responsible for our extended period of above normal temperatures will steadily deamplify the remainder of the week, eventually repositioning itself over the Southeast U.S. The final day of our current bout of heat will be Independence Day when a Central Plains storm system will allow a rare mid-summer cold front to invade the Southern Plains. This will also mark a pattern shift that will maintain milder temperatures and above normal precipitation chances through the second week of July. The 4th of July will be indistinguishable from other recent hot days with many locations reaching the century mark. Unseasonably rich moisture will push heat index values into the 105 to 110 range across much of the region. Despite a steady (albeit light) south wind, the risk of heat-related illness will be high, particularly for those engaging in outdoor activities who are not accustomed to spending much time exposed to this level of heat and humidity. Take all necessary precautions to avoid heat stress, including wearing light-colored/loose-fitting clothing, drinking plenty of water, and taking frequent breaks in the shade or in air-conditioned areas. Rain and storms are not expected to impact holiday festivities with afternoon/evening activity confined to two areas: (1) along the front from West Texas into Oklahoma and (2) sea breeze convection to our southeast. However, there is a low chance that the frontal activity could enter our northwest before midnight Thursday night. Without the ridge to prevent its forward progress, the cold front will move deep into North Texas on Friday. Showers and storms will accompany its passage, but reduced instability and seasonally weak shear should preclude any severe weather. Even outside of rain- cooled areas, increased cloud cover in the postfrontal air will result in the mildest daytime temperatures since before the summer solstice. The exception will be much of Central and East Texas, which may remain in the sunny pre-frontal sector during the afternoon hours. This could increase the instability enough to allow a few strong storms if the boundary mechanics are adequate. The front will likely stall or retreat on Saturday. Even if the post-frontal air never reaches Central Texas, rain chances and increased cloud cover should finally allow the entire region to enjoy below normal daytime temperatures. Sunshine and southerly winds will return early next week with a corresponding rise in temperature, but the ridge`s absence will cap afternoon highs in the mid 90s. The lack of inhibition will also maintain daily rain chances. Throughout next week, the Lone Star State will remain beneath a col, separating the Southeast ridge from a similar bubble over the Desert Southwest. There is an outside chance that this could encourage Beryl to approach. The GFS is the most bullish with this scenario, but a plurality of extended solutions favors persistence. We will continue to assess this with subsequent forecasts, but this afternoon`s package will include a new Day 7 (Tuesday next week) that will maintain seasonal temperatures and above normal precipitation chances. 25 && .AVIATION... /Issued 1132 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024/ /18Z TAFs/ ...VFR and south flow... No aviation weather concerns are expected in and around the TAF sites through Wednesday afternoon with only a few daytime Cu and some passing high clouds. A south wind will prevail in the 6 to 11 knot range along with some daytime gusts near 20 knots. 79 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 101 83 101 82 100 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 100 78 99 78 99 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 98 79 98 79 97 / 5 0 5 0 0 Denton 102 80 101 80 101 / 0 0 0 0 0 McKinney 101 80 100 80 99 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dallas 101 83 101 82 101 / 0 0 0 0 0 Terrell 99 79 99 79 98 / 0 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 101 80 100 80 99 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 101 76 99 78 99 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 102 78 101 78 101 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>093-100>104- 115>120-131>134-144>147-158>162-174-175. Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ094- 095-105>107-121>123-135-148. && $$