Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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302 FXUS64 KFWD 030610 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 110 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Thursday/ The mid-level ridge across North and Central Texas continues to deflect any prospects for rain away from the region. Instead, we`ll continue to experience above normal temperatures with even warmer heat index values. Today, temperatures across North Texas will mostly range between 100-104 degrees with heat index values between 106 to 108. In Central Texas, highs will remain in the mid to upper 90s, however, given better moisture, heat index values will also range between 106 to 109. Not much overnight recovery is expected tonight with temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s. 4th of July will be another hot one with temperatures reaching the triple digit mark across much of the region. With heat index values above 105 degrees, plan now on ways to mitigate the risk of heat related illnesses if you`ll be celebrating outdoors. Bring plenty of water, seek shade, and wear lightweight and light- colored clothing! Hernandez && .LONG TERM... /Issued 309 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024/ /Independence Day Through Next Week/ The mid-level ridge responsible for our extended period of above normal temperatures will steadily deamplify the remainder of the week, eventually repositioning itself over the Southeast U.S. The final day of our current bout of heat will be Independence Day when a Central Plains storm system will allow a rare mid-summer cold front to invade the Southern Plains. This will also mark a pattern shift that will maintain milder temperatures and above normal precipitation chances through the second week of July. The 4th of July will be indistinguishable from other recent hot days with many locations reaching the century mark. Unseasonably rich moisture will push heat index values into the 105 to 110 range across much of the region. Despite a steady (albeit light) south wind, the risk of heat-related illness will be high, particularly for those engaging in outdoor activities who are not accustomed to spending much time exposed to this level of heat and humidity. Take all necessary precautions to avoid heat stress, including wearing light-colored/loose-fitting clothing, drinking plenty of water, and taking frequent breaks in the shade or in air-conditioned areas. Rain and storms are not expected to impact holiday festivities with afternoon/evening activity confined to two areas: (1) along the front from West Texas into Oklahoma and (2) sea breeze convection to our southeast. However, there is a low chance that the frontal activity could enter our northwest before midnight Thursday night. Without the ridge to prevent its forward progress, the cold front will move deep into North Texas on Friday. Showers and storms will accompany its passage, but reduced instability and seasonally weak shear should preclude any severe weather. Even outside of rain- cooled areas, increased cloud cover in the postfrontal air will result in the mildest daytime temperatures since before the summer solstice. The exception will be much of Central and East Texas, which may remain in the sunny pre-frontal sector during the afternoon hours. This could increase the instability enough to allow a few strong storms if the boundary mechanics are adequate. The front will likely stall or retreat on Saturday. Even if the post-frontal air never reaches Central Texas, rain chances and increased cloud cover should finally allow the entire region to enjoy below normal daytime temperatures. Sunshine and southerly winds will return early next week with a corresponding rise in temperature, but the ridge`s absence will cap afternoon highs in the mid 90s. The lack of inhibition will also maintain daily rain chances. Throughout next week, the Lone Star State will remain beneath a col, separating the Southeast ridge from a similar bubble over the Desert Southwest. There is an outside chance that this could encourage Beryl to approach. The GFS is the most bullish with this scenario, but a plurality of extended solutions favors persistence. We will continue to assess this with subsequent forecasts, but this afternoon`s package will include a new Day 7 (Tuesday next week) that will maintain seasonal temperatures and above normal precipitation chances. 25 && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /06Z TAFs/ Another great flying day is expected across North and Central Texas. VFR and southerly winds will persist through the duration of this forecast. No significant weather impacts are expected at any North/Central Texas TAF sites. Hernandez && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 82 100 80 92 75 / 0 0 20 50 30 Waco 78 100 78 97 75 / 0 0 5 40 40 Paris 80 98 76 91 70 / 0 5 30 40 30 Denton 80 101 77 92 71 / 0 0 20 40 30 McKinney 80 100 78 92 73 / 0 0 20 40 30 Dallas 82 101 80 94 75 / 0 0 20 50 30 Terrell 79 98 77 93 73 / 0 0 10 40 40 Corsicana 80 99 79 97 75 / 0 0 5 40 40 Temple 77 99 77 98 75 / 0 0 0 30 40 Mineral Wells 78 101 77 92 71 / 0 0 20 50 30 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-100>107- 115>123-131>135-144>148-158>162-174-175. && $$