797
FXUS64 KFWD 150618
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
118 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Monday Afternoon/

In contrast to the past few days, a warm and humid night is
unfolding across North and Central Texas with mid-level ridging in
place. Morning lows will range from the mid 60s to lower 70s
though the urban areas are likely to hover closer to the mid 70s
through daybreak. The stream of high clouds which had been
associated with T.S. Ileana will decrease in coverage through the
pre-dawn hours as the cyclone weakens along the coast of NW
Mexico.

Though the surface remnants of Francine have diminished, an area
of low pressure aloft continues to spin over the Lower Mississippi
Valley with pockets/bands of moisture continuing to wrap around
the western flank into eastern OK and TX. Although the probability
of occurrence is low (~15%), we cannot completely rule out
additional light showers nudging into our forecast area from
southeast TX or southern OK this morning. Have introduced some
low PoPs along these borders to account for this potential.

This afternoon the area to watch will be south of I-20 where
subtle perturbations/impulses along the northern periphery of the
larger scale ridge will overlap the broad convergence occurring
along a diffuse surface boundary. Diurnal heating of the modestly
moist boundary layer (mid/upper 60s surface dewpoints) beneath
moderately steep mid-level lapse rates should support isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorm development. In the absence of wind
shear, severe weather remains unlikely though the strongest cells
may still be capable of producing some gusty downburst winds. Any
activity ongoing during the afternoon should gradually diminish
through the evening with the loss of daytime heating.

With the mid level ridge suppressed slightly to the southwest,
North and Central Texas will be under the influence of northwest
flow aloft on Sunday, keeping highs mostly in the low to mid 90s.
As the upper-level trough located over the northeastern Pacific
digs along the West Coast on Monday the mid/upper level ridge will
be nudged back eastward reasserting dry and warmer than normal
conditions across the region. Morning lows will be in the mid 60s
to lower 70s on Monday with afternoon highs ranging from the upper
80s (east) to mid 90s (west).

12

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 227 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024/
/Upcoming Week and Beyond/

Near to slightly above average temperatures and mostly dry
conditions can be expected for all of North and Central Texas
through the upcoming work week. Afternoon highs will generally
range between the low to mid 90s, with a few locations out west
approaching the upper 90s. It will feel much like a typical late
summer setup for most of the region, at least through the next
week or so. Overnight lows will stay warm and humid thanks to the
return of southerly flow at the surface and increased dew points,
hovering around the mid 70s each night. Rain chances will remain
low through the week, giving way to abnormally dry conditions. Our
flow pattern will continue to be dictated by weak upper level
ridging across the Southern Plains, keeping us in northwesterly
flow aloft. Widespread subsidence will keep the best rain chances
to our north and west, with low confidence in any showers or
storms reaching our area through much of the week ahead.

But there is potential for a pattern change next weekend! The
latest deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to hint at a
breakdown of this upper level ridge, which would allow troughing
across the western and eastern CONUS to guide our weather
conditions. While confidence remains quite low regarding specifics
at this time, this would help to increase rain chances as we move
into the latter half of the month. This would also bring about
cooler temperatures for most of the region, reminding us that this
summer weather will eventually come to an end. Continue to check
back for updates to the forecast as details become more refined!

Reeves

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06Z TAFs/

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24-30 hours with a
prevailing east-southeasterly flow at or below 10 kts across the
Metroplex, becoming more east-northeasterly after 18Z. The stream
of high clouds associated with Tropical Storm Ileana will decrease
in coverage today as the cyclone weakens along the coast of NW
Mexico.

Isolated to widely scattered showers and storms may develop
south/west of ACT this afternoon in the vicinity of a weak surface
boundary drifting southwest across the area. Did not include any
mention of storms in the Waco TAF due to low probability (less
than 15%) of impacts at or near the airport. All activity should
diminish by 06z/16. Winds at ACT will remain southeasterly through
16Z, then shift to the north/northeast. Wind speeds should
generally remain at or below 10 kts through the current TAF
period.

12

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    92  71  90  72  92 /   5   5   0   0   0
Waco                97  71  93  71  94 /  10  10   0   0   0
Paris               87  66  87  67  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              93  69  91  69  92 /  10   5   0   0   0
McKinney            92  68  90  69  91 /  10   0   0   0   0
Dallas              94  71  92  71  93 /   5   5   0   0   0
Terrell             92  67  90  68  91 /   5   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           94  70  93  71  92 /  10   5   0   0   0
Temple              97  70  95  70  95 /  20  30   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       95  69  93  69  93 /   5   5   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$