Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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644 FXUS64 KFWD 040819 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 319 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 ...New Long Term... .SHORT TERM... /Issued 1251 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024/ /Through Friday/ Key Points - Another hot day is expected today with widespread heat index values between 105 to 109F. A Heat Advisory in effect through 8 PM today. - Rain chances will increase after 9 PM along the Red River, then gradually make their way southward through the rest of the evening/night. - Cooler temperatures are expected on Friday, ending the 11 day heat advisory streak The mid-level ridge, which has been over North and Central Texas the last week and a half, will finally begin migrating eastward today. Unfortunately for North and Central Texans, this means we have one more day of above normal temperatures along with dangerous heat index values. For those who will be celebrating outdoors today, remember to stay hydrated and seek shade as often as possible. Temperatures will be in the upper 90s to around 104 with heat index values mostly between 105 to 109. The ridge breaking down means we`ll begin to see a more active weather pattern moving into the Southern Plains. A cold front will be pushing southward into Oklahoma late in the afternoon. Showers and storms that develop along the front will have the potential to produce outflow boundaries that will likely surge southward into our region. Should this occur, a few showers and storms would be possible beyond 9PM along the Red River. Gusty winds and lightning will be the main threats with any of the evening and overnight activity. Depending on the southward progression of the boundary, low rain chances may linger through the night across North Texas. The cold front`s position on Friday will dictate just how warm conditions will be in the afternoon. At this time, the expectation is for the front to be through all of North Texas prior to noon. Temperatures in North Texas will be the coolest with upper 80s to lower 90s. In Central Texas, mid 90s can be expected. Given heat index values will FINALLY be below 105 for the much of the region, a heat advisory is not expected for Friday. Hernandez && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ Update: No significant changes were made to the previous forecast, thus, the weather discussion below is still valid. A cold front pushing into North Texas on Friday along with disturbances passing through the weak NW flow aloft will lead to almost daily rainfall chances for most areas and near to below normal temperatures for all areas through Day 7/Wednesday. Current forecast precipitation totals for this period will generally range from 0.5-1.0 inch across North Texas and 1.0-2.0 inches across Central Texas. 12 Previous Discussion: /Thursday Evening Through the Middle of Next Week/ After two weeks of summer heat, the 4th of July will be the last day with triple-digit temperatures for the foreseeable future. A pattern shift will replace the heat with increased cloud cover, rain chances, and below normal daytime temperatures that will continue well into next week. The transition may begin as early as Thursday evening when showers and storms associated with an approaching cold front could enter our northwest counties. But even in those areas, holiday festivities are unlikely to be adversely impacted. Some of the activity may survive through the night as the front enters North Texas, but much of the region will have to wait until the daylight hours Friday for renewed development along the boundary. Weak shear should maintain a disorganized convective mode, and the severe potential remains low. However, adequate destabilization across Central and East Texas Friday afternoon could allow for a few strong storms, particularly if the front or outflow boundaries can reach those areas that reach the upper 90s one final time. Our prolonged rain-free period should limit the flood potential, but slow storm movement and precipitable water values topping 2 inches could yield isolated instances of heavy rainfall. As is often the case with mid-summer fronts, the boundary will steadily lose its definition on Saturday. However, it may still be able to focus convective initiation Saturday afternoon, especially if previous activity helps to enhance the boundary. Seasonal southerly flow will regain control on Sunday when abundant sunshine will push daytime temperatures back closer to normal values. With little inhibition, a few afternoon showers and storms may develop Sunday afternoon. But the more organized convection will be in the Central Plains, the resulting MCS making a surge at North Texas late Sunday night into Monday morning. This could bring widespread rain to the region Monday, which would then be a remarkably mild day. Hurricane Beryl will spend the weekend crossing the Gulf of Mexico along the northern edge of the Bay of Campeche. While it may remain within the tropical easterlies, it could also recurve toward the col atop the Lone Star State. Guidance diverges, with ECMWF ensemble members clustered around a second Mexico landfall and GEFS members favoring Texas. The GEPS (Canadian ensembles) are a compromise between the two, matching both the official NHC forecast and a majority of other dynamic model solutions that keep Beryl`s center south of Brownsville. However, the trend has been steadily northward with all available guidance. This is still several days away, but a more northerly path could bring Beryl`s post-landfall deluge to North and Central Texas. We will continue to assess this potential as Beryl approaches. 25 && .AVIATION... /Issued 1251 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024/ /06Z TAFs/ Clear skies are ongoing across North and Central Texas, and this will persist for a few more hours. Closer to sunrise, MVFR stratus will develop across the Hill Country, and begin shifting northeast. Although the expectation is for the ceilings to remain just south of KACT, we`ll have to continue monitoring trends in case clouds are a bit farther north than currently expected. By this afternoon, expect mostly clear skies once again with southerly winds continuing. Looking beyond 24 hours, a cold front across Oklahoma is expected to fire off showers and storms, some of which may push an outflow boundary southward. If this boundary materializes, northerly winds may arrive after midnight tonight and continue through the night. More on the potential wind shift in subsequent forecasts. Hernandez && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 101 79 92 75 93 / 0 20 50 20 20 Waco 99 78 95 75 92 / 0 5 20 30 40 Paris 98 75 90 70 93 / 0 40 50 20 20 Denton 101 76 92 72 93 / 0 30 40 20 20 McKinney 100 77 92 72 93 / 0 40 50 20 20 Dallas 101 79 93 75 93 / 0 20 50 20 20 Terrell 98 76 93 72 92 / 0 20 50 30 20 Corsicana 100 79 94 75 93 / 0 10 30 30 30 Temple 99 76 96 75 93 / 0 5 20 30 40 Mineral Wells 102 76 91 71 91 / 0 20 40 20 20 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-100>107- 115>123-131>135-144>148-158>162-174-175. && $$