821
FXUS64 KFWD 081837
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
137 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Tuesday/

Tropical Storm Beryl will scrape our southeastern boundary this
afternoon, bringing heavy rain and gusty winds to our East Texas
counties. While its center may remain just beyond our CWA, this
is the closest a named storm has been since the remnants of
Tropical Storm Bill tracked up the I-35 corridor in June 2015.

--- Rainfall and Flooding ---

Although the heaviest amounts will be within the onshore fetch to
the right of Beryl`s path, average QPF values are still expected
to exceed 5 inches along the eastern edge of our CWA. Isolated
higher amounts are likely. The east/west rainfall gradient will be
sharp, but the current Flood Watch still pairs well with the area
most likely to experience flooding impacts.

--- Wind Gusts ---

Wind speeds to the left of Beryl`s center will be diminished by
the forward motion of the storm, and sustained speeds should
remain below Wind Advisory criteria. Nonetheless, peak gusts will
still top 40 mph on our side of the storm, primarily from Cameron
and Hearne to Palestine and Athens. Such gusts will be possible
elsewhere if convective elements are able to transport some of the
stronger momentum aloft down to the surface.

--- Tornado Potential ---

The tornado threat will be primarily confined to the northeast
quadrant, which will remain deeper into East Texas. However, a
brief spin-up will still be possible within our CWA, particularly
if the ongoing bands develop better separation.

--- Elsewhere Across the Region ---

Beryl`s rain shield is spreading westward but will struggle to
reach the I-35 corridor as wrap-around moisture battles the dry
advection of the northwest quadrant`s land breeze. However, the
proximity of the tropical cyclone should mean that its ring of
subsidence is beyond our CWA and that areas to the west of the
main precipitation will be largely unencumbered. Diurnal
convective development has already begun along the periphery of
the rain shield near the I-35 corridor, and additional showers
and isolated storms will also occur well west of I-35. The
convective nature of this activity will result in considerable
spread in rainfall amounts over short distances. In general,
storm totals will be under 1 inch along and west of the I-35
corridor, with many locations across the Big Country missing out
entirely.

--- Tonight ---

The remnants of Beryl will exit into the Ark-La-Tex tonight. Gusty
winds will persist across much of the region during the overnight
hours though speeds will gradually diminish. As is typical with
inland tropical systems, the diurnal convective activity around
its periphery will diminish this evening, leaving a smaller core
of nocturnal precipitation near the center. By midnight, the
rainfall will be confined to Northeast Texas, likely exiting our
CWA before daybreak Tuesday morning.

--- Tuesday ---

The sun will re-emerge on Tuesday with daytime temperatures
returning to the 90s. The exception will be our rain-soaked
portions of East Texas, which despite the sunshine, will only peak
in the 80s. The remnants of Beryl will continue to dominate the
surface wind field, the north winds reducing afternoon dew points
to more seasonal levels. However, steamy East Texas may keep dew
point values in the 70s throughout the day.

25

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 300 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024/
/Wednesday And Beyond/

At the onset of the extended period, North and Central Texas will
be located on the fringes of a persistent upper ridge to the west
and a deamplifying upper trough lifting from the Mississippi
Valley to the Great Lakes. The combination of the lingering warm
and humid airmass, weak/broad high pressure at the surface, and
modest mid/upper level flow will favor a pattern of primarily
diurnal convection through Friday and into the weekend. Scattered
daytime thunderstorms developing along the sea breeze as well as
any other remnant boundaries will generally focus the best rain
chances across Central Texas through the period leaving most of
North Texas precipitation-free for the remainder of the week.

Temperatures will be on the rise as southerly surface winds
return, with afternoon temperatures quickly climbing into the mid
to upper 90s. Unfortunately this puts us on track for the re-
emergence of triple digit heat by the end of the weekend. With no
means to dry out the boundary layer, humidity is also going to be
a problem with peak heat index values likely approaching Heat
Advisory criteria across parts of the area late weekend and into
the following week.

12

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

Beryl has closed the southeast arrival gate and prevented
departures due east. A handful of arrivals continue through the
Bonham cornerpost, but northeast arrivals will be further
disrupted as the remnants of Beryl approach.

The main rain shield and strongest winds will remain to the east
of D10 (as well as the Waco terminal), but Beryl will maintain
north flow through Tuesday. Wind gusts will steadily increase
across the D10 airports this afternoon, then continue much of the
evening. Peak gusts may top 30kts but will be primarily around
25kts. Diurnally driven showers and storms will impact airport
operations this afternoon, with the rainfall coming to an end by
nightfall.

Ceilings will be highly variable: within the VFR category at
times this afternoon without ongoing convection, then becoming
primarily MVFR as the boundary layer cools and unseasonal north
winds prevail. VFR will prevail Tuesday with north flow.

25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    85  72  91  72  95 /  80  20   5   5   5
Waco                84  70  93  71  94 /  70  10   5   5  10
Paris               84  68  88  67  91 /  90  80  20   5   5
Denton              86  68  92  68  95 /  70  20   5   5   0
McKinney            84  69  90  68  94 /  80  40   5   5   5
Dallas              87  71  92  72  95 /  80  30   5   5   5
Terrell             84  69  90  68  92 /  90  70   5   5   5
Corsicana           84  71  93  72  94 /  90  50   5   5   5
Temple              84  70  94  71  95 /  60  10   5   5  10
Mineral Wells       87  68  93  67  95 /  50  10   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for TXZ095-105>107-121>123-
135-146>148-160>162-174-175.

&&

$$