Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
968 FXUS64 KFWD 082022 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 322 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 ...New Long Term... .SHORT TERM... /Issued 137 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024/ /Through Tuesday/ Tropical Storm Beryl will scrape our southeastern boundary this afternoon, bringing heavy rain and gusty winds to our East Texas counties. While its center may remain just beyond our CWA, this is the closest a named storm has been since the remnants of Tropical Storm Bill tracked up the I-35 corridor in June 2015. --- Rainfall and Flooding --- Although the heaviest amounts will be within the onshore fetch to the right of Beryl`s path, average QPF values are still expected to exceed 5 inches along the eastern edge of our CWA. Isolated higher amounts are likely. The east/west rainfall gradient will be sharp, but the current Flood Watch still pairs well with the area most likely to experience flooding impacts. --- Wind Gusts --- Wind speeds to the left of Beryl`s center will be diminished by the forward motion of the storm, and sustained speeds should remain below Wind Advisory criteria. Nonetheless, peak gusts will still top 40 mph on our side of the storm, primarily from Cameron and Hearne to Palestine and Athens. Such gusts will be possible elsewhere if convective elements are able to transport some of the stronger momentum aloft down to the surface. --- Tornado Potential --- The tornado threat will be primarily confined to the northeast quadrant, which will remain deeper into East Texas. However, a brief spin-up will still be possible within our CWA, particularly if the ongoing bands develop better separation. --- Elsewhere Across the Region --- Beryl`s rain shield is spreading westward but will struggle to reach the I-35 corridor as wrap-around moisture battles the dry advection of the northwest quadrant`s land breeze. However, the proximity of the tropical cyclone should mean that its ring of subsidence is beyond our CWA and that areas to the west of the main precipitation will be largely unencumbered. Diurnal convective development has already begun along the periphery of the rain shield near the I-35 corridor, and additional showers and isolated storms will also occur well west of I-35. The convective nature of this activity will result in considerable spread in rainfall amounts over short distances. In general, storm totals will be under 1 inch along and west of the I-35 corridor, with many locations across the Big Country missing out entirely. --- Tonight --- The remnants of Beryl will exit into the Ark-La-Tex tonight. Gusty winds will persist across much of the region during the overnight hours though speeds will gradually diminish. As is typical with inland tropical systems, the diurnal convective activity around its periphery will diminish this evening, leaving a smaller core of nocturnal precipitation near the center. By midnight, the rainfall will be confined to Northeast Texas, likely exiting our CWA before daybreak Tuesday morning. --- Tuesday --- The sun will re-emerge on Tuesday with daytime temperatures returning to the 90s. The exception will be our rain-soaked portions of East Texas, which despite the sunshine, will only peak in the 80s. The remnants of Beryl will continue to dominate the surface wind field, the north winds reducing afternoon dew points to more seasonal levels. However, steamy East Texas may keep dew point values in the 70s throughout the day. 25 && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Tuesday Night through Monday/ The remnants of Beryl will be well removed to the northeast by Tuesday night with a broad trough axis lingering across the Mississippi River Valley northeast into the Great Lakes. Stronger ridging will remain in place across the western CONUS through the latter part of the week leaving North Texas beneath a weakness in the height field. Weak winds aloft and a moist boundary layer should result in hot and humid afternoons with low chances for diurnally driven convection. The best moisture will be confined to the Texas coast, but scattered sea breeze convection each afternoon may make a run at our southern counties through the weekend. Rain chances will generally be 20% or less each afternoon with most locations remaining dry. Temperatures will also creep back into the upper 90s by the end of the week with heat indices near 105 degrees each afternoon. Dunn && .AVIATION... /Issued 137 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024/ /18Z TAFs/ Beryl has closed the southeast arrival gate and prevented departures due east. A handful of arrivals continue through the Bonham cornerpost, but northeast arrivals will be further disrupted as the remnants of Beryl approach. The main rain shield and strongest winds will remain to the east of D10 (as well as the Waco terminal), but Beryl will maintain north flow through Tuesday. Wind gusts will steadily increase across the D10 airports this afternoon, then continue much of the evening. Peak gusts may top 30kts but will be primarily around 25kts. Diurnally driven showers and storms will impact airport operations this afternoon, with the rainfall coming to an end by nightfall. Ceilings will be highly variable: within the VFR category at times this afternoon without ongoing convection, then becoming primarily MVFR as the boundary layer cools and unseasonal north winds prevail. VFR will prevail Tuesday with north flow. 25 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 72 91 74 95 76 / 20 5 0 0 0 Waco 70 93 72 95 73 / 10 5 5 5 0 Paris 68 88 67 92 70 / 80 20 5 5 0 Denton 68 92 69 96 72 / 20 5 0 0 0 McKinney 69 90 70 95 73 / 40 5 0 0 0 Dallas 71 92 74 96 75 / 30 5 0 0 0 Terrell 69 90 70 94 71 / 70 5 5 0 0 Corsicana 71 93 72 95 74 / 50 5 5 0 0 Temple 70 94 72 95 72 / 10 5 5 5 0 Mineral Wells 68 93 69 96 71 / 10 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for TXZ095-105>107-121>123- 135-146>148-160>162-174-175. && $$