Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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333 FXUS64 KFWD 070724 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 224 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 ...New Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /Issued 711 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024/ Update: Diurnally-driven convection in the vicinity of a stalled frontal boundary through Central Texas will continue to wane with loss of heating this evening, with a tranquil overnight period expected. Another round of scattered convection is possible tomorrow afternoon, and this would be most likely to affect areas east of I-35 and south of I-20. Later tomorrow evening, a convective complex will move southeastward out of Oklahoma and into North Texas, and may be capable of localized hail/wind threats. PoPs have been increased roughly along and north of the Highway 380 corridor based on decent agreement among recent high-res guidance. Otherwise, the focus remains on the approaching tropical system which will arrive during the first half of the week. Flood headlines will likely be coordinated in upcoming forecast issuances. -Stalley Previous Discussion: /This Afternoon through Sunday Night/ Mostly sunny and pleasant conditions prevail across North Texas at this hour behind yesterday`s cold front. The old boundary is draped across Central TX this morning and lower 70s dewpoints have already crept back into our southeast counties. While synoptic lift is generally weak across the Southern Plains this afternoon, heating along a broadly convergent zone in Central TX should lead to some scattered thunderstorms. This activity would mainly be across our far southern and southeastern counties and diminish in coverage this evening with loss of heating. Southerly flow will return to North Texas tonight and begin to pull moisture northward making it feel a little more humid. Overnight lows will be several degrees warmer as well with temperatures in the mid 70s expected. On Sunday, North and Central TX will be between an approaching cold front off to the north and Tropical Storm Beryl which will be making a run at the TX coastline. This will lead to relatively quiet conditions, although we will warm back into the mid 90s with increasing humidity. Heat indices will again climb back above 100 degrees for most locations. By Sunday night, thunderstorms are expected to erupt along the cold front across parts of Oklahoma and will likely move across the Red River late overnight. Areas north of I-20 will have the best chance for thunderstorms and some locally heavy rainfall. Rain chances will continue through the middle of the week with influence from the tropical system. More details on that below... Dunn && .LONG TERM... /Issued 402 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024/ /Monday through Next Week/ Bottom Line: Heavy rainfall leading to areas of flash flooding associated with TS Beryl (anticipated to make landfall as a hurricane along the TX Coast) will impact portions of North & Central Texas through early next week. * Most Likely Rainfall Amounts: * West of I-35: Up to 1" * East of I-35: 2 - 6" (highest totals SE) * Isolated (10% Coverage) Amounts: * West of I-35: 1 - 3" * East of I-35: 6 - 10" (highest totals SE) * Greatest Flood Threat Timing: Late Mon. Evening - Midday Tues. Discussion: No significant adjustments have been made to the forecast since the overnight update. Confidence is increasing that periods of heavy rain will impact the region as Beryl moves inland, resulting in an increased threat for flash flooding. Beryl is forecast to make landfall Monday morning near the Middle TX coast, before shifting north and weakening to a Tropical Depression as it reaches Central Texas. The southernmost counties in the Brazos Valley will start to see showers and storms ahead of the main core of the system around mid-morning Monday, with coverage expanding northward through the day. Most guidance has a tight gradient of rainfall, with a narrow corridor of the highest totals confined to the southeasternmost counties of the forecast area. However, we`ll have to monitor the potential for dry air entraining into the system, which would result in a less confined area of precipitation and allow for heavier rainfall to expand further north and west, impacting areas near the I-20 corridor. This would result in a sharp drop-off of rain totals further to the south and west near the Big Country. For the DFW Metroplex, conditions will be feast vs famine when it comes to rainfall totals. The further east, the better chances of totals near the 1.5" to 3" range, however areas only a handful of miles to the west may receive next to nothing. We`ll also have to closely monitor the threat for tornadoes late Monday and into Tuesday as the system moves inland. Rain chances taper off by Tuesday evening as the system shifts out of the area and phases with an upper level trough heading for the Great Lakes. The unsettled pattern sticks around through the end of the week with daily storm chances through Friday. Highs mostly in the 80s Monday and Tuesday will gradually warm into mid 90s generally by Thursday. Gordon && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /06Z TAFs/ VFR conditions will prevail through the period with light southeasterly surface winds becoming more northeasterly toward the end of the period ahead of an approaching line of thunderstorms. Scattered convection associated with the northward sweeping rain bands of Tropical Cyclone Beryl will begin moving up from the coast this afternoon. Given the current position and track of Beryl, this activity is not expected to reach the TAF sites during this period. A convective complex is forecast to move southeastward out of Oklahoma this evening, initially impacting air traffic around the Bowie cornerpost as early as 00Z Monday. Have introduced VCTS to the Metroplex TAFs with this update as this line will begin approaching the airports near the end of the period. Our confidence in how far south these storms will reach remains low as guidance favors a more west to east propagation along the Red River. Even if the main complex stays north of the TAF sites, there is likely to be an outflow/wind shift that pushes out ahead of the convection. The timing of wind shift reaching the airports will be adjusted in subsequent TAFs. 12 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 96 75 89 72 85 / 5 30 50 30 40 Waco 96 75 87 71 83 / 10 20 50 40 40 Paris 94 72 88 69 79 / 5 50 60 40 60 Denton 97 72 89 71 86 / 0 50 60 30 40 McKinney 96 72 89 71 83 / 5 40 60 40 40 Dallas 97 75 90 72 84 / 5 30 60 40 40 Terrell 95 73 88 71 83 / 10 30 60 50 50 Corsicana 96 76 89 73 84 / 10 30 60 60 50 Temple 96 75 86 72 87 / 10 10 50 40 40 Mineral Wells 97 71 89 69 87 / 0 30 40 20 30 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$