Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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171 FXUS64 KFWD 070754 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 254 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 ...New Short Term... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Today and Tonight/ Today`s warm-up will be preceded by a seasonably warm, humid, and convection-free night across North and Central Texas. Temperatures will settle into the lower 70s by daybreak, though some urban areas are likely to hover closer to the mid/upper 70s. The diffuse remnants of yesterday`s stationary boundary in the Hill Country has now washed out allowing southerly flow to return. A slight uptick in wind speeds is expected later today in response to the developing surface low near the CO-OK-KS border which will increase the surface pressure gradient across the state. Supported by warm-air advection, the loosely organized cluster of thunderstorms in northwestern Oklahoma is taking on a more southeastward propagation at this hour. These storms are expected to eventually succumb to the weakening of the low-level jet later this morning, leading to a gradual weakening before the convection reaches southern Oklahoma. By late morning/early afternoon, Beryls rain bands will begin lashing the coast, progressively reaching further inland through the afternoon and evening ahead of its eventual landfall early Monday. Apart from these northward sweeping rain bands, most of North and Central Texas will remain dry today, with temperatures climbing into the mid to upper 90s and triple digit peak heat index values. Though several locations east of I-35 may see heat indices reach or exceed 105 degrees this afternoon, we will not be issuing a Heat Advisory as this will be the only day that this is expected to occur. As a reminder a Heat Advisory is issued when the maximum heat index values are expected to reach 105 degrees or higher for two consecutive days OR the temperature is expected to reach 103 degrees or higher or two consecutive days. By this afternoon, a line of thunderstorms developing along an approaching cold front is expected to grow upscale as storm interactions occur and a stronger cold pool develops through the evening. The resulting MCS will likely move across the Red River during the pre-dawn hours on Monday. Areas near and north of the I-20 corridor will have the best chance for thunderstorms with the potential for strong wind gusts. With tropical moisture streaming northward across the region any convection will be capable of producing heavy downpours which could lead to quickly emerging flood issues. 12 && .LONG TERM... /Issued 402 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024/ /Monday through Next Week/ Bottom Line: Heavy rainfall leading to areas of flash flooding associated with TS Beryl (anticipated to make landfall as a hurricane along the TX Coast) will impact portions of North & Central Texas through early next week. * Most Likely Rainfall Amounts: * West of I-35: Up to 1" * East of I-35: 2 - 6" (highest totals SE) * Isolated (10% Coverage) Amounts: * West of I-35: 1 - 3" * East of I-35: 6 - 10" (highest totals SE) * Greatest Flood Threat Timing: Late Mon. Evening - Midday Tues. Discussion: No significant adjustments have been made to the forecast since the overnight update. Confidence is increasing that periods of heavy rain will impact the region as Beryl moves inland, resulting in an increased threat for flash flooding. Beryl is forecast to make landfall Monday morning near the Middle TX coast, before shifting north and weakening to a Tropical Depression as it reaches Central Texas. The southernmost counties in the Brazos Valley will start to see showers and storms ahead of the main core of the system around mid-morning Monday, with coverage expanding northward through the day. Most guidance has a tight gradient of rainfall, with a narrow corridor of the highest totals confined to the southeasternmost counties of the forecast area. However, we`ll have to monitor the potential for dry air entraining into the system, which would result in a less confined area of precipitation and allow for heavier rainfall to expand further north and west, impacting areas near the I-20 corridor. This would result in a sharp drop-off of rain totals further to the south and west near the Big Country. For the DFW Metroplex, conditions will be feast vs famine when it comes to rainfall totals. The further east, the better chances of totals near the 1.5" to 3" range, however areas only a handful of miles to the west may receive next to nothing. We`ll also have to closely monitor the threat for tornadoes late Monday and into Tuesday as the system moves inland. Rain chances taper off by Tuesday evening as the system shifts out of the area and phases with an upper level trough heading for the Great Lakes. The unsettled pattern sticks around through the end of the week with daily storm chances through Friday. Highs mostly in the 80s Monday and Tuesday will gradually warm into mid 90s generally by Thursday. Gordon && .AVIATION... /Issued 224 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024/ /06Z TAFs/ VFR conditions will prevail through the period with light southeasterly surface winds becoming more northeasterly toward the end of the period ahead of an approaching line of thunderstorms. Scattered convection associated with the northward sweeping rain bands of Tropical Cyclone Beryl will begin moving up from the coast this afternoon. Given the current position and track of Beryl, this activity is not expected to reach the TAF sites during this period. A convective complex is forecast to move southeastward out of Oklahoma this evening, initially impacting air traffic around the Bowie cornerpost as early as 00Z Monday. Have introduced VCTS to the Metroplex TAFs with this update as this line will begin approaching the airports near the end of the period. Our confidence in how far south these storms will reach remains low as guidance favors a more west to east propagation along the Red River. Even if the main complex stays north of the TAF sites, there is likely to be an outflow/wind shift that pushes out ahead of the convection. The timing of wind shift reaching the airports will be adjusted in subsequent TAFs. 12 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 96 75 89 72 85 / 5 30 50 30 40 Waco 96 75 87 71 83 / 10 20 50 40 40 Paris 94 72 88 69 79 / 5 50 60 40 60 Denton 97 72 89 71 86 / 0 50 60 30 40 McKinney 96 72 89 71 83 / 5 40 60 40 40 Dallas 97 75 90 72 84 / 5 30 60 40 40 Terrell 95 73 88 71 83 / 10 30 60 50 50 Corsicana 96 76 89 73 84 / 10 30 60 60 50 Temple 96 75 86 72 87 / 10 10 50 40 40 Mineral Wells 97 71 89 69 87 / 0 30 40 20 30 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$