Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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077 FXUS64 KFWD 071907 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 207 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 ...New Long Term... .SHORT TERM... /Issued 122 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024/ /This Afternoon through Monday Night/ The short term forecast through Monday remains largely in tact with no major changes at this time. Warm and humid conditions will continue through the rest of the afternoon with high temperatures topping out in the mid 90s and heat indices near 105. A complex of thunderstorms moved across southern Oklahoma and the far southern end of this may clip a few of our Red River counties through the rest of the afternoon. A well defined outflow boundary is pushing southward off of this complex and will likely spread into parts of North Texas through the middle of the afternoon. It`s a little uncertain if we`ll see new convection develop along this boundary, but the atmosphere is unstable and weakly capped across North Texas, so we can`t rule out a few isolated storms. We`ll have some 20% PoPs to account for this. Farther south, a band of showers and thunderstorms is spreading through southeast TX and may spread into our far southeastern counties through the rest of the afternoon where we`ll have 20-30% PoPs. All of this activity should be diurnally driven and a decrease in coverage is expected after dark. As we head into Monday, we`ll be watching a potential cluster of thunderstorms across southwest Oklahoma spreading into North Texas late tonight into Monday morning. Model guidance has had a little trouble handling this potential complex and today`s outflow boundary may make things more complicated, but we`ll generally have 30-50% coverage late tonight into Monday morning across our northwest counties and north of I-20. Attention then turns to the remnants of Beryl that will be spreading north into the area. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be the main impacts in our area with rain increasing in coverage and intensity from late morning through the afternoon and evening. Heavy rainfall will continue into the overnight hours Monday night before tapering off during the day Tuesday. No major changes to forecast rainfall amounts have been made, although a slight shift eastward was made. It still looks like the heaviest rainfall will be along and east of I-45 across our eastern and southeastern counties. We expanded the Flood Watch to include all of our eastern counties through Monday night. Dunn && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Tuesday through Saturday/ The remnants of Beryl will continue to move northeast away from the region by early Tuesday with some low PoPs lingering across our northeast counties. In its wake, northerly flow and drier air will persist across North and Central Texas, although a gradient of low level moisture will be present across South Texas. This boundary will spread north late in the day and could provide a focus for a few thunderstorms late Tuesday afternoon across our Central Texas counties. With stronger ridging remaining both to the east and west of Texas, we`ll remain beneath a weakness in the height fields aloft Wednesday through the end of the week. Low level moisture will gradually increase through the end of the week with southerly flow returning. While more appreciable large scale forcing for ascent will be absent, we can still expect to see scattered afternoon showers and storms each day through Saturday with coverage generally around 20%. Temperatures will steadily climb back into the mid and upper 90s by Friday with heat indices back near 105 each afternoon. Dunn && .AVIATION... /Issued 122 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024/ /18Z TAFs/ VFR will prevail with southeast winds around 10 kt through this afternoon. We`ll be watching an outflow boundary that is spreading south across the Red River at this time. It`s a little uncertain whether or not it will make it to the major airports, but if that potential increases, then a TEMPO wind shift to the north will be needed. There is also a low potential for a storm or two to develop along this boundary through the afternoon. Otherwise, winds will gradually become more easterly then northeast late tonight into Monday as the remnants of Beryl spread inland. This will likely be accompanied by MVFR cigs Monday morning. Widespread rainfall is expected to start impacting the airports around midday and continue through the late evening. DFW/DAL will have the highest rain chances with a notable gradient in precipitation expected farther westward. Some intermittent gusty northeast winds to 30 kt can be expected with the rain bands. Dunn && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 75 85 71 90 73 / 10 70 40 10 5 Waco 75 85 70 91 72 / 10 70 40 10 10 Paris 73 83 67 86 68 / 40 100 90 30 10 Denton 72 86 68 91 69 / 10 60 40 10 5 McKinney 73 85 68 89 70 / 20 80 50 20 5 Dallas 76 87 71 91 73 / 20 70 50 20 5 Terrell 75 83 69 89 70 / 20 100 70 20 5 Corsicana 77 85 70 91 73 / 20 100 60 20 10 Temple 75 85 69 92 72 / 10 60 30 10 10 Mineral Wells 72 88 69 91 68 / 5 50 20 10 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday morning for TXZ095-105>107-121>123-135-146>148-160>162-174-175. && $$