Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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872 FXUS64 KFWD 080020 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 720 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 ...New Aviation, Short Term... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ Update: Convection associated with a far outer band of Beryl affected much of Southeast and Central Texas this afternoon, but this activity is beginning to dissipate as of 7 PM with loss of heating. A robust outflow boundary resulting from this activity is still moving NW through DFW and surrounding areas at the current time, and this feature has a history of producing wind gusts of 35-50 mph. Meanwhile, our attention will turn to upstream convective activity in Oklahoma, where a couple of convective segments are making southeastward progress towards North Texas at this time. While some decline in this convection is expected this evening, some thunderstorm activity is expected to affect areas near the Red River at a minimum after dark, and could conceivably spread as far south as the I-20 corridor by Monday morning. Localized hail/wind threats may exist, especially in areas near and north of Highway 380. No meaningful changes were necessary in terms of the heavy rain amount/location associated with Beryl for tomorrow and tomorrow night, and no configuration changes were needed for the Flood Watch with this update. -Stalley Previous Discussion: /This Afternoon through Monday Night/ The short term forecast through Monday remains largely in tact with no major changes at this time. Warm and humid conditions will continue through the rest of the afternoon with high temperatures topping out in the mid 90s and heat indices near 105. A complex of thunderstorms moved across southern Oklahoma and the far southern end of this may clip a few of our Red River counties through the rest of the afternoon. A well defined outflow boundary is pushing southward off of this complex and will likely spread into parts of North Texas through the middle of the afternoon. It`s a little uncertain if we`ll see new convection develop along this boundary, but the atmosphere is unstable and weakly capped across North Texas, so we can`t rule out a few isolated storms. We`ll have some 20% PoPs to account for this. Farther south, a band of showers and thunderstorms is spreading through southeast TX and may spread into our far southeastern counties through the rest of the afternoon where we`ll have 20-30% PoPs. All of this activity should be diurnally driven and a decrease in coverage is expected after dark. As we head into Monday, we`ll be watching a potential cluster of thunderstorms across southwest Oklahoma spreading into North Texas late tonight into Monday morning. Model guidance has had a little trouble handling this potential complex and today`s outflow boundary may make things more complicated, but we`ll generally have 30-50% coverage late tonight into Monday morning across our northwest counties and north of I-20. Attention then turns to the remnants of Beryl that will be spreading north into the area. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be the main impacts in our area with rain increasing in coverage and intensity from late morning through the afternoon and evening. Heavy rainfall will continue into the overnight hours Monday night before tapering off during the day Tuesday. No major changes to forecast rainfall amounts have been made, although a slight shift eastward was made. It still looks like the heaviest rainfall will be along and east of I-45 across our eastern and southeastern counties. We expanded the Flood Watch to include all of our eastern counties through Monday night. Dunn && .LONG TERM... /Issued 207 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024/ /Tuesday through Saturday/ The remnants of Beryl will continue to move northeast away from the region by early Tuesday with some low PoPs lingering across our northeast counties. In its wake, northerly flow and drier air will persist across North and Central Texas, although a gradient of low level moisture will be present across South Texas. This boundary will spread north late in the day and could provide a focus for a few thunderstorms late Tuesday afternoon across our Central Texas counties. With stronger ridging remaining both to the east and west of Texas, we`ll remain beneath a weakness in the height fields aloft Wednesday through the end of the week. Low level moisture will gradually increase through the end of the week with southerly flow returning. While more appreciable large scale forcing for ascent will be absent, we can still expect to see scattered afternoon showers and storms each day through Saturday with coverage generally around 20%. Temperatures will steadily climb back into the mid and upper 90s by Friday with heat indices back near 105 each afternoon. Dunn && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00z TAFs/ An outflow boundary has swept through the Metroplex TAF sites within the past hour resulting in gusty southeasterly winds, although it was unaccompanied by any shower or thunderstorm activity as convection has largely dissipated. A fairly tranquil overnight period will follow despite an active radar presentation to both the north and south of the TAF sites. Upstream convection in Oklahoma may attempt to move towards or into D10 very late tonight or early tomorrow morning, while additional activity associated with the outer bands of Beryl begins pivoting northward from Southeast Texas. This will culminate in multiple opportunities for showers and thunderstorms tomorrow, with the greatest time of impact likely occurring from late morning through the afternoon. During this time window, the remnants of Beryl and its main precipitation will be passing nearby, and should contribute to periodic shower and thunderstorms especially near and east of the TAF sites. Widespread MVFR cigs should also be expected, with further degraded cig/vsby conditions present within areas of precip. This system will also lead to breezy ENE surface winds of 15-20 kts and gusts near 30 kts during the daytime. As the remnants of Beryl progress off to the northeast at the end of the TAF period, rain chances will come to an end, although low cigs may prevail into the evening with northerly winds. -Stalley && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 76 87 70 90 73 / 20 80 40 10 5 Waco 75 85 70 91 72 / 20 80 30 10 10 Paris 73 85 67 86 68 / 40 90 80 30 10 Denton 72 87 68 91 69 / 20 70 30 10 5 McKinney 74 85 68 89 70 / 30 80 60 20 5 Dallas 77 87 70 91 73 / 20 80 50 20 5 Terrell 75 85 69 89 70 / 30 90 70 20 5 Corsicana 77 85 71 91 73 / 30 90 60 20 10 Temple 75 85 70 92 72 / 30 70 20 10 10 Mineral Wells 71 87 68 91 68 / 10 60 20 10 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday morning for TXZ095-105>107-121>123-135-146>148-160>162-174-175. && $$