406
FXUS64 KFWD 080615
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
115 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

...New Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 720 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024/
Update:
Convection associated with a far outer band of Beryl affected much
of Southeast and Central Texas this afternoon, but this activity
is beginning to dissipate as of 7 PM with loss of heating. A
robust outflow boundary resulting from this activity is still
moving NW through DFW and surrounding areas at the current time,
and this feature has a history of producing wind gusts of 35-50
mph. Meanwhile, our attention will turn to upstream convective
activity in Oklahoma, where a couple of convective segments are
making southeastward progress towards North Texas at this time.
While some decline in this convection is expected this evening,
some thunderstorm activity is expected to affect areas near the
Red River at a minimum after dark, and could conceivably spread as
far south as the I-20 corridor by Monday morning. Localized
hail/wind threats may exist, especially in areas near and north of
Highway 380. No meaningful changes were necessary in terms of the
heavy rain amount/location associated with Beryl for tomorrow and
tomorrow night, and no configuration changes were needed for the
Flood Watch with this update.

-Stalley

Previous Discussion:
/This Afternoon through Monday Night/

The short term forecast through Monday remains largely in tact
with no major changes at this time. Warm and humid conditions will
continue through the rest of the afternoon with high temperatures
topping out in the mid 90s and heat indices near 105. A complex of
thunderstorms moved across southern Oklahoma and the far southern
end of this may clip a few of our Red River counties through the
rest of the afternoon. A well defined outflow boundary is pushing
southward off of this complex and will likely spread into parts of
North Texas through the middle of the afternoon. It`s a little
uncertain if we`ll see new convection develop along this boundary,
but the atmosphere is unstable and weakly capped across North
Texas, so we can`t rule out a few isolated storms. We`ll have some
20% PoPs to account for this.

Farther south, a band of showers and thunderstorms is spreading
through southeast TX and may spread into our far southeastern
counties through the rest of the afternoon where we`ll have 20-30%
PoPs. All of this activity should be diurnally driven and a
decrease in coverage is expected after dark. As we head into
Monday, we`ll be watching a potential cluster of thunderstorms
across southwest Oklahoma spreading into North Texas late tonight
into Monday morning. Model guidance has had a little trouble
handling this potential complex and today`s outflow boundary may
make things more complicated, but we`ll generally have 30-50%
coverage late tonight into Monday morning across our northwest
counties and north of I-20.

Attention then turns to the remnants of Beryl that will be
spreading north into the area. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding
will be the main impacts in our area with rain increasing in
coverage and intensity from late morning through the afternoon and
evening. Heavy rainfall will continue into the overnight hours
Monday night before tapering off during the day Tuesday. No major
changes to forecast rainfall amounts have been made, although a
slight shift eastward was made. It still looks like the heaviest
rainfall will be along and east of I-45 across our eastern and
southeastern counties. We expanded the Flood Watch to include all
of our eastern counties through Monday night.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 207 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024/
/Tuesday through Saturday/

The remnants of Beryl will continue to move northeast away from
the region by early Tuesday with some low PoPs lingering across
our northeast counties. In its wake, northerly flow and drier air
will persist across North and Central Texas, although a gradient
of low level moisture will be present across South Texas. This
boundary will spread north late in the day and could provide a
focus for a few thunderstorms late Tuesday afternoon across our
Central Texas counties.

With stronger ridging remaining both to the east and west of
Texas, we`ll remain beneath a weakness in the height fields aloft
Wednesday through the end of the week. Low level moisture will
gradually increase through the end of the week with southerly flow
returning. While more appreciable large scale forcing for ascent
will be absent, we can still expect to see scattered afternoon
showers and storms each day through Saturday with coverage
generally around 20%. Temperatures will steadily climb back into
the mid and upper 90s by Friday with heat indices back near 105
each afternoon.

Dunn

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06 TAFs/

A south-moving outflow will move through the D10 TAF terminals
within the first hour of the TAF period and bring a couple hours
of gusty north flow. Scattered showers are developing behind the
outflow. The thunder potential with this activity is about 20%, so
VCTS was not included with this wind shift. There is another line
of storms moving into the area from the west that will approach
D10 around 10Z. While the line should weaken as it interacts with
the previously mentioned outflow, there is a chance it doesn`t and
VCTS will have to be added for the 10-13Z timeframe.

Hurricane Beryl will move inland today, with a shield of moderate
to heavy rain near the center of the track. West of the storm over
North Texas, scattered storms will develop by mid-morning. VCTS is
included in the TAFs due to this activity, but by the time Beryl`s
rain shield moves in early this afternoon, the thunder potential
lowers quite a bit. How far west the rain shield will settle is
still uncertain, with most of the high-res guidance bisecting D10.
For instance, DAL is forecast to get ~10 hours of steady rain and
AFW/FTW getting no more than 1 hour of rain all day. Future TAFs
can futher attempt to discern the placement of the rain shield,
but wobbles left/right in the track of Beryl are still likely
until it makes landfall.

Beryl should exit to the NE late in the day, leaving the region
under a shroud of MVFR ceilings for the remainder of the TAF
period.

Bonnette

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    70  90  73  94  74 /  40  10   5   5   5
Waco                70  92  72  93  72 /  30  10  10  20   5
Paris               68  86  68  91  69 / 100  40  10   5   5
Denton              68  90  69  94  70 /  30   5   5   5   5
McKinney            69  88  70  92  71 /  80  10   5   5   5
Dallas              71  91  73  94  74 /  60  10   5   5   5
Terrell             69  89  70  91  70 /  90  10   5  10   5
Corsicana           71  90  73  93  73 /  90  10  10  10   5
Temple              70  93  72  94  72 /  20  20  10  20   5
Mineral Wells       68  91  68  95  70 /  10   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT this morning through Tuesday morning
for TXZ095-105>107-121>123-135-146>148-160>162-174-175.

&&

$$