762
FXUS64 KFWD 080731
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
231 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

...New Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Monday and Tuesday/

Key Messages:

- Hurricane Beryl will make landfall before sunrise this morning
  and impact the eastern half of our forecast area today.

- The main impact today will be heavy rain and flooding mainly for
  areas east of I-45...Our easternmost 1-2 rows of counties are
  forecast to receive between 4-7" of rain with isolated totals of
  10" today.

- 20-30 mph winds with gusts up to 40 mph is expected for parts of
  eastern Central Texas this afternoon. The remainder of the area
  will be gusty, but below our Wind Advisory criteria.

- Scattered showers and storms are forecast to develop west of the
  track of Beryl, mainly across North Texas. This precip will be
  very hit/miss with localized areas receiving 2-4" of rain while
  areas a few miles away receive less than 0.25" of rain.

- Beryl will move into East Texas/Arkansas tonight, with all
  precip exiting our area Tuesday morning.

Discussion:

Pre-Dawn Monday...
2 outflow boundaries will move across North Texas in the pre-dawn
hours. One is oriented east-west moving through the Metroplex and
I-20 corridor, and the other is oriented north-south moving into
western North Texas. Scattered showers have developed behind the
east-west outflow with a low threat of lightning. The north-south
boundary has healthier convection; particularly where it crosses
the east-west boundary. A gradual weakening of this convection is
expected over the next few hours as it moves into a narrow band of
subsidence between the storms to the west and Hurricane Beryl
near the Gulf Coast. Meanwhile, mid-level lift ahead of Hurricane
Beryl is starting to develop scattered showers over East Texas
that will continue through the morning.

Monday and Tuesday...
By daybreak, Beryl should be a Tropical Storm near Houston with a
shield of moderate to heavy rain moving into our eastern Central
Texas counties. The aforementioned scattered showers will also be
ongoing further north over North and East Texas, and a cluster of
storms is expected to be ongoing over western North
Texas/southern Oklahoma. Beryl will move north-northeast today,
clipping Leon and Anderson counties this afternoon. The rain
shield will advance well north and west of the center of the
track, particularly this afternoon when the system starts to
transition to sub-tropical. This will create quite a gradient in
precipitation, with our eastern 1-2 rows of counties (closest to
the track) receiving between 4-7" of rain and isolated areas
receiving 10". Most areas west of I-35 can expect lower totals,
but still between 1-3". Just west of the rain shield, less than
0.25" of rain is expected (for the most part--more on that below).
How far west the steady rain shield will settle is still
uncertain, but most of the high-res guidance ends it around the
I-35 corridor. To illustrate the point...most CAM guidance has the
eastern Metroplex getting ~10 hours of steady rain, while areas
west of the D/FW Airport receive about an hour or less of rain all
day.

We have issued a Flood Watch for most of our eastern counties that
starts this morning and ends tonight. Areas within the watch have
a high risk of flooding today...particularly for any low-lying
and flood-prone locations east of I-45. Be prepared to take action
if you receive a warning. If traveling, Turn around, don`t drown
if you encounter flooded roads.

We briefly mentioned a cluster of storms ongoing over western
North Texas early this morning. This activity is taking place in a
broad area of large-scale ascent ahead of a potent shortwave
trough that will swing across Texas today. This cluster should
weaken after sunrise, with scattered showers and storms
developing later this morning into the afternoon along remnant
mesoscale boundaries. Beryl will still have a strong influence on
where these develop, creating north-south oriented bands of
moderate to heavy rain. We expect 2-4" of rain to fall within
these convective bands. Areas outside of these bands will receive
much less rain, generally less than 0.25"

Beryl will move into East Texas late this afternoon, then Arkansas
tonight. Any ongoing precipitation away from the center of the
track (the convective bands) should end within a couple hours of
sunset. The rain near the center of Beryl will move out of our
area before sunrise Tuesday. While the shortwave trough will
create a messy pattern today, it will result in much quieter
weather tomorrow. We have trimmed PoPs out of most of the area,
with only a 20% chance of showers in the afternoon across the
eastern and southern fringe of our forecast area.

Bonnette

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 207 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024/
/Tuesday through Saturday/

The remnants of Beryl will continue to move northeast away from
the region by early Tuesday with some low PoPs lingering across
our northeast counties. In its wake, northerly flow and drier air
will persist across North and Central Texas, although a gradient
of low level moisture will be present across South Texas. This
boundary will spread north late in the day and could provide a
focus for a few thunderstorms late Tuesday afternoon across our
Central Texas counties.

With stronger ridging remaining both to the east and west of
Texas, we`ll remain beneath a weakness in the height fields aloft
Wednesday through the end of the week. Low level moisture will
gradually increase through the end of the week with southerly flow
returning. While more appreciable large scale forcing for ascent
will be absent, we can still expect to see scattered afternoon
showers and storms each day through Saturday with coverage
generally around 20%. Temperatures will steadily climb back into
the mid and upper 90s by Friday with heat indices back near 105
each afternoon.

Dunn

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 115 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024/
/06Z TAFs/

A south-moving outflow will move through the D10 TAF terminals
within the first hour of the TAF period and bring a couple hours
of gusty north flow. Scattered showers are developing behind the
outflow. The thunder potential with this activity is about 20%, so
VCTS was not included with this wind shift. There is another line
of storms moving into the area from the west that will approach
D10 around 10Z. While the line should weaken as it interacts with
the previously mentioned outflow, there is a chance it doesn`t and
VCTS will have to be added for the 10-13Z timeframe.

Hurricane Beryl will move inland today, with a shield of moderate
to heavy rain near the center of the track. West of the storm over
North Texas, scattered storms will develop by mid-morning. VCTS is
included in the TAFs due to this activity, but by the time Beryl`s
rain shield moves in early this afternoon, the thunder potential
lowers quite a bit. How far west the rain shield will settle is
still uncertain, with most of the high-res guidance bisecting D10.
For instance, DAL is forecast to get ~10 hours of steady rain and
AFW/FTW getting no more than 1 hour of rain all day. Future TAFs
can further attempt to discern the placement of the rain shield,
but wobbles left/right in the track of Beryl are still likely
until it makes landfall.

Beryl should exit to the NE late in the day, leaving the region
under a shroud of MVFR ceilings for the remainder of the TAF
period.

Bonnette

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    86  70  90  73  94 /  90  40  10   5   5
Waco                85  70  92  72  93 /  80  30  10  10  20
Paris               84  68  86  68  91 / 100 100  40  10   5
Denton              86  68  90  69  94 /  80  30   5   5   5
McKinney            85  69  88  70  92 / 100  80  10   5   5
Dallas              87  71  91  73  94 /  90  60  10   5   5
Terrell             83  69  89  70  91 / 100  90  10   5  10
Corsicana           83  71  90  73  93 / 100  90  10  10  10
Temple              85  70  93  72  94 /  70  20  20  10  20
Mineral Wells       88  68  91  68  95 /  60  10   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT this morning through Tuesday morning
for Txz093-105>107-121>123-135-146>148-160>162-174-175.

&&

$$