Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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112 FXUS64 KFWD 021632 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1132 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /This afternoon through Wednesday/ Excessive heat and humidity will remain through mid-week with strong ridging aloft, plenty of sun, and a constant supply of Gulf moisture. Afternoon temperatures will hover around 100 degrees with the hottest temperatures in the west and the highest humidity in the east. Afternoon heat index values will reach between 105 and 110 overall, but some locations in the east could exceed 110 briefly this afternoon. We will maintain the Excessive Heat Warning in the east with a Heat Advisory for most other locations through the afternoon. We will wait for the late afternoon forecast issuance to extend/change any heat products for tomorrow. New guidance coming in suggests that afternoon heat index values will be below 110 in nearly all locations, so we may not need to extend the Excessive Heat Warning, but we will need a Heat Advisory for most of the forecast area. Subsidence under the ridge should suppress all convection, but a few storms may move up from South Texas on the sea breeze Wednesday afternoon and approach the far southeast zones. 79 && .LONG TERM... /Issued 321 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024/ Update: The aforementioned mid-level ridge will maintain the status quo through Thursday/Independence Day before a pattern change occurs and introduces the prospect of near normal temperatures and measurable rainfall Friday and Saturday. To put this week`s heat into climatological context, Thursdays high temperatures are poised to tie the record for the 3rd hottest July 4th at DFW. Additionally, we are on track to threaten daily high minimum temperature records through the end of the week. A cold front will push into Oklahoma on Thursday afternoon reaching central Oklahoma by Thursday evening. Though this surface boundary will serve as a focus for shower and thunderstorm development, this activity is not expected to impact 4th of July celebrations south of the Red River until after midnight. Overall, the forecast trends discussed below remain on track, therefore no significant changes were made to the previous forecast with this update. 12 Previous Discussion: /Wednesday and Beyond/ North and Central Texas will remain under the influence of a stout upper ridge through the middle portions of this week keeping mostly sunny, hot, and dry weather through the 4th of July holiday. Expect afternoon highs in the mid-90s to lower 100s both Wednesday and Thursday with heat index values peaking in the 103-108 degree range. Most of our area will likely need extensions to current heat headlines. Therefore, continue to take the necessary precautions to avoid heat-related illnesses, especially if you plan on being outside for extended periods time on the 4th. Drink plenty of water, take a dip in the pool or a break in the A/C, and wear light-colored clothing! A notable change in the weather pattern is expected to take place in the late Thursday-Friday time frame. Troughing over the Central Plains will help send a weak cold front toward North Texas Thursday night into Friday morning. This slow, southward-moving frontal boundary will serve as a focus for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development through the latter half of Saturday. Most likely rain amounts look to remain generally in the 0.2-0.5" range with isolated totals upward of an inch. This frontal boundary and increase in cloudiness will also bring about a mid- summer "cooldown" for at least the first half of the weekend. Afternoon temperatures will drop down into the low to mid-90s (possibly even upper 80s) for much of the region Friday and Saturday. Beyond Saturday, the continuing weather pattern is a bit of a toss-up. Just over half of the EPS/GEFS/GEPS ensemble members keep an active weather pattern over the Central US with strong ridging placed over the Western CONUS. The other half attempts to build a ridge back over the state of Texas, keeping rain chances on the lower end. We will also be monitoring Hurricane Beryl as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula this weekend. The vast majority of guidance currently keeps a Gulf of Mexico landfall down in Mexico with impacts to North and Central Texas unlikely. Continue to monitor for updates over the next several days now that we have weather other than just hot and dry in the forecast! Langfeld && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /18Z TAFs/ ...VFR and south flow... No aviation weather concerns are expected in and around the TAF sites through Wednesday afternoon with only a few daytime Cu and some passing high clouds. A south wind will prevail in the 6 to 11 knot range along with some daytime gusts near 20 knots. 79 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 101 82 100 82 100 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 100 79 99 78 99 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 98 79 98 79 97 / 5 5 0 0 0 Denton 102 80 101 81 101 / 0 0 0 0 0 McKinney 101 81 99 81 99 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dallas 101 83 100 82 100 / 0 0 0 0 0 Terrell 99 79 98 78 97 / 0 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 101 80 99 79 99 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 101 77 99 78 99 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 102 78 102 78 101 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>093-100>104- 115>120-131>134-144>147-158>162-174-175. Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ094-095-105>107-121>123-135-148. && $$