Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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420 FXUS64 KFWD 042355 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 655 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Friday/ Woohoo! You made it! The last triple digit temperature day for the foreseeable future is nearly complete! The current Heat Advisory will be allowed to expire at 8PM this evening with no plans on an extension into Friday. Thunderstorms have developed along and south of a cold front currently laid across Central Oklahoma. A cluster of storms near Ada, OK has kicked off an outflow boundary that will approach the Red River in the next hour. It is uncertain how convection will evolve along this boundary during the overnight hours, however a couple high-res models do have activity extending as far south as the I-20 corridor later tonight. Loss of daytime heating and increasing MLCIN should keep coverage on the lower end. Better chances for precipitation will arrive Friday morning generally after sunrise as the actual cold front pushes into North Texas. With weak wind shear and ~1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE, unorganized clusters of thunderstorms are the most likely storm mode capable of producing isolated strong downburst winds. Outflow from these storms may kick off more cells throughout the day. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue into the afternoon, generally shifting southward with the front, and then decreasing in coverage Friday evening with a loss in diurnal heating. With increased rain chances/cloud cover, northeasterly flow behind the front, and upper troughing over the Central Plains shunting our persistent ridge axis off to the southeast, you can expect noticeably cooler temperatures on Friday continuing into the weekend. Temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s are expected across much of North and Central Texas Friday afternoon with some locations in Central Texas and the Brazos Valley peaking in the mid to upper 90s ahead of FROPA. Langfeld && .LONG TERM... /Issued 332 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024/ /Saturday Through Next Week/ After two full weeks dominated by oppressive ridging, a significant pattern shift is underway. Texas will spend the next several days underneath a col between a pair of ridges, one in the West and another over the Southeast. This will mean increased cloud cover and rain chances with below normal daytime temperatures. This extended period of unsettled weather will continue throughout the upcoming week, during which we may also see impacts from a tropical system. The aforementioned frontal boundary may linger on Saturday, a weak disturbance aloft aiding in renewed development throughout the daylight hours, more likely south of the I-20 corridor. With the weakness aloft, another frontal system will dive into the Central Plains this weekend. Although well north of us, its associated surface low will return southerly winds to North and Central Texas on Sunday, dissolving what`s left of our aging front. This warm advection and increasing insolation will push daytime temperatures back closer to normal values on Sunday. With little inhibition, a few afternoon showers and storms may develop Sunday afternoon within the deeper moisture across East Texas. The more organized convection will be associated with the frontal boundary in the Central Plains, the resulting MCS making a surge at North Texas late Sunday night into Monday morning. Despite seasonally tepid inflow, guidance is still convinced this will occur. If so, it could bring widespread rain to the region on Monday, which would then be a remarkably mild day. Hurricane Beryl will spend the weekend crossing the Gulf of Mexico along the northern edge of the Bay of Campeche. With weak steering flow, there remains appropriate spread among ensemble members. But with the West Coast ridging extended deep into the tropics, it`s becoming increasingly likely that our col will be the favored direction. Despite reasonable uncertainty at this time scale, guidance is coming into better agreement with a landfall near the mouth of the Rio Grande Monday morning. Beryl`s remnants would then spread northward, bringing enhanced rain chances to North and Central Texas Tuesday and Wednesday. It`s too early to discuss amounts or locations, but this should further diminish our negative mid-level height anomalies, maintaining our unseasonally mild/wet pattern. 25 && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00Z TAFs/ VFR will prevail through the remainder of this evening with south flow around 10 kts. Thunderstorms across south-central Oklahoma have kicked off an outflow boundary currently located about 25 miles north of the TX/OK border. It is uncertain how convection will evolve along this boundary later tonight, but there is a low chance (less than 20%) for TSRA entering the D10 airspace in the 05Z-07Z timeframe (have kept out of the TAF for now). If this boundary makes it to D10 later tonight, a wind shift out of the north-northeast is likely. Better chances for TSRA impacts will likely arrive Friday morning generally after 14Z as a cold front pushes into North Texas. Brief lowered cigs and visibilities are possible with any more robust storms. A noticeable wind shift out of the northeast is expected behind the front and will persist through the remainder of the day Friday. Langfeld && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 78 89 75 92 77 / 20 50 20 30 5 Waco 78 94 75 92 75 / 10 30 20 40 5 Paris 75 89 71 91 71 / 40 40 10 20 5 Denton 76 88 72 93 73 / 30 50 10 20 5 McKinney 77 89 73 92 73 / 30 50 10 20 5 Dallas 78 91 76 92 76 / 20 50 20 30 5 Terrell 76 90 72 91 73 / 20 50 20 30 5 Corsicana 78 94 75 93 76 / 10 30 20 40 5 Temple 76 96 75 93 75 / 5 20 20 40 5 Mineral Wells 76 88 71 91 72 / 20 60 20 30 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-100>107- 115>123-131>135-144>148-158>162-174-175. && $$