Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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556 FXUS64 KFWD 050849 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 349 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 ...New Long Term... .SHORT TERM... /Issued 143 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024/ /Today and Tonight/ A summertime cold front is expected to move across the region today, bringing an end to the season`s first heat wave. As is typical with any front at this time of the year, showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front. Surface dew point analysis indicates that the front is still in northern Oklahoma/West Texas, but an outflow boundary from earlier convection has created a northerly wind shift across parts of North Texas early this morning. A cluster of showers and storms will develop near/just behind the cold front over West Texas/Western Oklahoma in the pre- dawn hours that will help drive the front (and an attendant strong outflow boundary) south. Largely disorganized convection will accompany the front as it moves across the region today. The front should move into Central Texas late in the day, then stall and start to wash out late tonight and Saturday. The severe threat today is low, but not zero. This is particularly for areas south of I-20 where diurnal destabilization will favor a <5% chance of damaging wind gusts this afternoon. Today`s storms will be very efficient rain makers, so if a storm develops over any urban corridors, short-lived minor flooding will be likely. Most of the convection will wane with the loss of heating this evening. A resurgence over West Texas is expected late tonight into early Saturday morning. Most of the precip will remain to our west, but there is a 30-40% chance of showers in the pre-dawn hours Saturday. Most of North Texas` temperatures this afternoon will be 10-15 degrees below yesterday. The same can not be said for Central Texas where highs are still expected to peak in the mid to upper 90s. Heat index values will climb near our Heat Advisory criteria, but lack of confidence regarding when the cold front/outflow moves through has precluded our issuance of a Heat Advisory for any part of our area. Bonnette && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ Update: The forecast trends discussed below remain on track with no notable departures from the anticipated pattern in the evening guidance. All eyes will be on the Gulf of Mexico through the weekend and into early next week as Hurricane Beryl moves around the southern and western periphery of the weakening ridge over the Southeast. Though uncertainty continues in the forecast track, strength and speed of Beryl, we are beginning to see a moderate uptick in cumulative rainfall estimates for next week. In general, 1 to 3 inches of rainfall is expected through Thursday night with lesser amounts west of Highway 281. There is currently about a 10% chance of rainfall totals exceeding 4 inches across portions of Central Texas. These amounts have been and will likely continue to trend higher in response to inland track adjustments over the next few days. 12 Previous Discussion: /Saturday Through Next Week/ After two full weeks dominated by oppressive ridging, a significant pattern shift is underway. Texas will spend the next several days underneath a col between a pair of ridges, one in the West and another over the Southeast. This will mean increased cloud cover and rain chances with below normal daytime temperatures. This extended period of unsettled weather will continue throughout the upcoming week, during which we may also see impacts from a tropical system. The aforementioned frontal boundary may linger on Saturday, a weak disturbance aloft aiding in renewed development throughout the daylight hours, more likely south of the I-20 corridor. With the weakness aloft, another frontal system will dive into the Central Plains this weekend. Although well north of us, its associated surface low will return southerly winds to North and Central Texas on Sunday, dissolving what`s left of our aging front. This warm advection and increasing insolation will push daytime temperatures back closer to normal values on Sunday. With little inhibition, a few afternoon showers and storms may develop Sunday afternoon within the deeper moisture across East Texas. The more organized convection will be associated with the frontal boundary in the Central Plains, the resulting MCS making a surge at North Texas late Sunday night into Monday morning. Despite seasonally tepid inflow, guidance is still convinced this will occur. If so, it could bring widespread rain to the region on Monday, which would then be a remarkably mild day. Hurricane Beryl will spend the weekend crossing the Gulf of Mexico along the northern edge of the Bay of Campeche. With weak steering flow, there remains appropriate spread among ensemble members. But with the West Coast ridging extended deep into the tropics, it`s becoming increasingly likely that our col will be the favored direction. Despite reasonable uncertainty at this time scale, guidance is coming into better agreement with a landfall near the mouth of the Rio Grande Monday morning. Beryl`s remnants would then spread northward, bringing enhanced rain chances to North and Central Texas Tuesday and Wednesday. It`s too early to discuss amounts or locations, but this should further diminish our negative mid-level height anomalies, maintaining our unseasonally mild/wet pattern. 25 && .AVIATION... /Issued 143 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024/ /06Z TAFs/ An outflow boundary is approaching the D10 terminals at the start of the TAF period. Expect a short-lived northerly wind shift before 08Z, with light winds expected thereafter. The wind direction will be a little squirrelly in the pre-dawn hours, but generally out of the east, fluttering between ~080-130. A more pronounced northerly wind shift is expected around 15Z that will remain through the remainder of the TAF period. Several clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing across West Texas and Oklahoma that will make a run at our TAF terminals today. We`re confident in at least some storm impacts at our TAF sites, but the timing of when they affect each terminal is still largely uncertain given the scattered coverage of today`s storms. Due to this uncertainty, we did not include any prevailing or TEMPO TS on station ATTM. At least a TS TEMPO will likely be added to the 09Z TAFs. We`re monitoring a large time-window between ~15-22Z for the D10 terminals and ~17-00Z for ACT. Bonnette && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 91 75 91 76 95 / 60 30 20 0 20 Waco 96 76 92 75 95 / 40 40 40 5 20 Paris 91 71 92 71 92 / 50 20 20 5 20 Denton 90 71 92 73 95 / 60 30 20 5 20 McKinney 91 72 91 73 94 / 50 30 20 5 20 Dallas 93 76 92 76 96 / 60 30 20 5 20 Terrell 92 73 92 73 93 / 50 40 30 5 20 Corsicana 95 74 92 76 95 / 50 40 40 5 20 Temple 97 75 94 75 96 / 20 30 40 10 20 Mineral Wells 90 71 90 72 95 / 60 40 20 5 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$