Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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948 FXUS64 KFWD 071107 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 607 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 ...New Aviation, Short Term... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ Update: Though guidance has continued to struggle with the ongoing complex of thunderstorms across northern Oklahoma this morning, we are finally beginning to see signs of weakening as the convection moves into slightly less favorable instability. Though the current track should keep the remnants of this complex north of the Red River, low PoPs (<20%) have been introduced to the far northeastern corner of our domain as the cells on the southern/southwestern flank of the complex may clip this area later this morning. All other forecast trends discussed below remain on track, and no significant adjustments were needed with this morning`s update. 12 Previous Discussion: /Today and Tonight/ Today`s warm-up will be preceded by a seasonably warm, humid, and convection-free night across North and Central Texas. Temperatures will settle into the lower 70s by daybreak, though some urban areas are likely to hover closer to the mid/upper 70s. The diffuse remnants of yesterday`s stationary boundary in the Hill Country has now washed out allowing southerly flow to return. A slight uptick in wind speeds is expected later today in response to the developing surface low near the CO-OK-KS border which will increase the surface pressure gradient across the state. Supported by warm-air advection, the loosely organized cluster of thunderstorms in northwestern Oklahoma is taking on a more southeastward propagation at this hour. These storms are expected to eventually succumb to the weakening of the low-level jet later this morning, leading to a gradual weakening before the convection reaches southern Oklahoma. By late morning/early afternoon, Beryls rain bands will begin lashing the coast, progressively reaching further inland through the afternoon and evening ahead of its eventual landfall early Monday. Apart from these northward sweeping rain bands, most of North and Central Texas will remain dry today, with temperatures climbing into the mid to upper 90s and triple digit peak heat index values. Though several locations east of I-35 may see heat indices reach or exceed 105 degrees this afternoon, we will not be issuing a Heat Advisory as this will be the only day that this is expected to occur. As a reminder a Heat Advisory is issued when the maximum heat index values are expected to reach 105 degrees or higher for two consecutive days OR the temperature is expected to reach 103 degrees or higher or two consecutive days. By this afternoon, a line of thunderstorms developing along an approaching cold front is expected to grow upscale as storm interactions occur and a stronger cold pool develops through the evening. The resulting MCS will likely move across the Red River during the pre-dawn hours on Monday. Areas near and north of the I-20 corridor will have the best chance for thunderstorms with the potential for strong wind gusts. With tropical moisture streaming northward across the region any convection will be capable of producing heavy downpours which could lead to quickly emerging flood issues. 12 && .LONG TERM... /Issued 445 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024/ /Monday Onward/ Key messages: - Tropical Storm Beryl is forecast to move across the southeastern part of our forecast area Monday afternoon and night. Steady moderate to heavy rain will begin Monday morning and exit the area Tuesday morning. - The main impact for our area will be heavy rainfall and flooding for the areas near the track of Beryl. A Flood Watch has been issued for parts of eastern North and Central Texas. - 4-7" of rain with localized areas up to 10" are forecast for the eastern/southeastern parts of our forecast area. - Those within the flood watch should take action to prepare for potential flooding today. - 20-30 mph winds with gusts up to 40 mph will be possible for portions of Milam, Robertson, Leon, Freestone, Anderson, and perhaps Henderson counties Monday afternoon and evening. The remainder of the area will be gusty, but below our Wind Advisory criteria. Discussion: Tropical Storm Beryl is forecast to strengthen to a Hurricane and make landfall near/east of Matagorda early Monday morning. It should track north and weaken to a Tropical Storm as it moves into the far southeastern portions of our forecast area Monday afternoon. It will continue north-northeast Monday evening, further weakening to a Tropical Depression before moving into Arkansas Monday night. As the precipitation contracts toward the center of Beryl tonight, the first wave of rain is expected to move into our forecast area before sunrise Monday. Once the rain moves in, it is not expected to stop until the center of the storm moves through. Areas north and east of the low pressure circulation will be most at-risk of prolonged moderate to heavy rainfall. Beryl should ingest dry air as it moves inland, creating a dry slot/precipitation void south and southwest of the low pressure circulation. This will result in a sharp gradient between very high rainfall totals and much less, if any, rain. Subtle shifts in the track will pay dividends regarding the precip forecast. Regardless...areas near and east of the track of the storm can expect 4-7" of rain with some receiving up to 10". Beryl will not be the only weather-maker impacting our forecast area Monday. A fairly well organized mid-level trough will dig into the Southern Plains Sunday night and swing across Texas Monday. The overnight convection mentioned in the Short Term discussion will create an outflow boundary and a source of low- level ascent to develop scattered showers and thunderstorms west of Beryl`s circulation Monday afternoon. A north-south oriented band of convection should develop between Beryl and the upper trough, with locally heavy rain expected in this thin sliver of convective activity. Unfortunately, if you are in Beryl`s path, you`ll receive too much rain in a short duration, and if you`re west of it and outside of the thin sliver of convective activity, you`re more than likely not going to receive much more than 0.10" of rain. Beryl will eject northeast into Arkansas Monday night, taking most of the rain with it by daybreak Tuesday. It will leave a warm and humid airmass over the region, so it will not take much heating to develop isolated to scattered showers and storms in the afternoon. This will be the general pattern for the rest of the week. Expect a warming trend each day, with scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. While we will generally remain below Heat Advisory criteria, a Heat Advisory may be needed late in the week or next weekend. Bonnette && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /12Z TAFs/ VFR and light southeasterly winds will prevail this morning. The decaying complex of thunderstorms currently moving across western Oklahoma may approach the Red River later this morning or early this afternoon. However this activity and any associated wind shifts should remain displaced well north of our TAF sites. SHRA/TSRA associated with the Beryl`s outer rain bands will begin moving onshore this afternoon. With the tropical cyclone still located over the Gulf, the rain bands are only expected to reach the Cedar Creek cornerpost during this period. Any subsequent impacts from Beryl will likely begin approaching the TAF sites just beyond the current TAF period. Another convective complex will move southeastward from Oklahoma later tonight. There remains some uncertainty regarding how organized the complex will be as it pushes south of the Red River and how far south it will move before dissipating. Have kept VCTS at 05Z at the Metroplex airports immediately preceded by a northeastward wind shift as there is likely to be an outflow present out ahead of the convection. Confidence in direct impacts to D10 airports is too low to include any mention with this issuance but may be introduced in subsequent TAFs. 12 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 96 75 86 72 90 / 5 30 60 40 30 Waco 96 75 84 70 89 / 10 20 60 40 20 Paris 94 72 82 68 85 / 10 50 80 70 50 Denton 97 71 86 70 90 / 5 50 60 30 20 McKinney 96 72 84 70 88 / 5 40 70 50 30 Dallas 97 75 86 72 90 / 5 30 70 40 30 Terrell 95 73 83 70 87 / 10 30 80 60 40 Corsicana 96 76 83 72 89 / 10 30 80 60 30 Temple 96 75 84 70 91 / 10 10 60 40 20 Mineral Wells 97 71 87 69 90 / 5 30 50 20 20 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday morning for TXZ121>123-135-146>148-160>162-174-175. && $$