343
FXUS64 KFWD 071822
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
122 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/This Afternoon through Monday Night/

The short term forecast through Monday remains largely in tact
with no major changes at this time. Warm and humid conditions will
continue through the rest of the afternoon with high temperatures
topping out in the mid 90s and heat indices near 105. A complex of
thunderstorms moved across southern Oklahoma and the far southern
end of this may clip a few of our Red River counties through the
rest of the afternoon. A well defined outflow boundary is pushing
southward off of this complex and will likely spread into parts of
North Texas through the middle of the afternoon. It`s a little
uncertain if we`ll see new convection develop along this boundary,
but the atmosphere is unstable and weakly capped across North
Texas, so we can`t rule out a few isolated storms. We`ll have some
20% PoPs to account for this.

Farther south, a band of showers and thunderstorms is spreading
through southeast TX and may spread into our far southeastern
counties through the rest of the afternoon where we`ll have 20-30%
PoPs. All of this activity should be diurnally driven and a
decrease in coverage is expected after dark. As we head into
Monday, we`ll be watching a potential cluster of thunderstorms
across southwest Oklahoma spreading into North Texas late tonight
into Monday morning. Model guidance has had a little trouble
handling this potential complex and today`s outflow boundary may
make things more complicated, but we`ll generally have 30-50%
coverage late tonight into Monday morning across our northwest
counties and north of I-20.

Attention then turns to the remnants of Beryl that will be
spreading north into the area. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding
will be the main impacts in our area with rain increasing in
coverage and intensity from late morning through the afternoon and
evening. Heavy rainfall will continue into the overnight hours
Monday night before tapering off during the day Tuesday. No major
changes to forecast rainfall amounts have been made, although a
slight shift eastward was made. It still looks like the heaviest
rainfall will be along and east of I-45 across our eastern and
southeastern counties. We expanded the Flood Watch to include all
of our eastern counties through Monday night.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 445 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024/
/Monday Onward/

Key messages:

- Tropical Storm Beryl is forecast to move across the southeastern
  part of our forecast area Monday afternoon and night. Steady
  moderate to heavy rain will begin Monday morning and exit the
  area Tuesday morning.

- The main impact for our area will be heavy rainfall and
  flooding for the areas near the track of Beryl. A Flood Watch
  has been issued for parts of eastern North and Central Texas.

      - 4-7" of rain with localized areas up to 10" are forecast
        for the eastern/southeastern parts of our forecast area.

      - Those within the flood watch should take action to prepare
        for potential flooding today.

- 20-30 mph winds with gusts up to 40 mph will be possible for
  portions of Milam, Robertson, Leon, Freestone, Anderson, and
  perhaps Henderson counties Monday afternoon and evening. The
  remainder of the area will be gusty, but below our Wind Advisory
  criteria.

Discussion:
Tropical Storm Beryl is forecast to strengthen to a Hurricane and
make landfall near/east of Matagorda early Monday morning. It
should track north and weaken to a Tropical Storm as it moves
into the far southeastern portions of our forecast area Monday
afternoon. It will continue north-northeast Monday evening,
further weakening to a Tropical Depression before moving into
Arkansas Monday night.

As the precipitation contracts toward the center of Beryl tonight,
the first wave of rain is expected to move into our forecast area
before sunrise Monday. Once the rain moves in, it is not expected
to stop until the center of the storm moves through. Areas north
and east of the low pressure circulation will be most at-risk of
prolonged moderate to heavy rainfall. Beryl should ingest dry air
as it moves inland, creating a dry slot/precipitation void south
and southwest of the low pressure circulation. This will result in
a sharp gradient between very high rainfall totals and much less,
if any, rain. Subtle shifts in the track will pay dividends
regarding the precip forecast. Regardless...areas near and east of
the track of the storm can expect 4-7" of rain with some
receiving up to 10".

Beryl will not be the only weather-maker impacting our forecast
area Monday. A fairly well organized mid-level trough will dig
into the Southern Plains Sunday night and swing across Texas
Monday. The overnight convection mentioned in the Short Term
discussion will create an outflow boundary and a source of low-
level ascent to develop scattered showers and thunderstorms west
of Beryl`s circulation Monday afternoon. A north-south oriented
band of convection should develop between Beryl and the upper
trough, with locally heavy rain expected in this thin sliver of
convective activity. Unfortunately, if you are in Beryl`s path,
you`ll receive too much rain in a short duration, and if you`re
west of it and outside of the thin sliver of convective activity,
you`re more than likely not going to receive much more than 0.10"
of rain.

Beryl will eject northeast into Arkansas Monday night, taking most
of the rain with it by daybreak Tuesday. It will leave a warm and
humid airmass over the region, so it will not take much heating
to develop isolated to scattered showers and storms in the
afternoon. This will be the general pattern for the rest of the
week. Expect a warming trend each day, with scattered afternoon
showers and thunderstorms. While we will generally remain below
Heat Advisory criteria, a Heat Advisory may be needed late in the
week or next weekend.

Bonnette

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

VFR will prevail with southeast winds around 10 kt through this
afternoon. We`ll be watching an outflow boundary that is spreading
south across the Red River at this time. It`s a little uncertain
whether or not it will make it to the major airports, but if that
potential increases, then a TEMPO wind shift to the north will be
needed. There is also a low potential for a storm or two to
develop along this boundary through the afternoon.

Otherwise, winds will gradually become more easterly then
northeast late tonight into Monday as the remnants of Beryl spread
inland. This will likely be accompanied by MVFR cigs Monday
morning. Widespread rainfall is expected to start impacting the
airports around midday and continue through the late evening.
DFW/DAL will have the highest rain chances with a notable gradient
in precipitation expected farther westward. Some intermittent
gusty northeast winds to 30 kt can be expected with the rain
bands.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    98  75  85  71  90 /   0  10  70  40  10
Waco                95  75  85  70  91 /  10  10  70  40  10
Paris               93  73  83  67  86 /   5  40 100  90  30
Denton              98  72  86  68  91 /   0  10  60  40  10
McKinney            95  73  85  68  89 /   5  20  80  50  20
Dallas              96  76  87  71  91 /   5  20  70  50  20
Terrell             96  75  83  69  89 /  10  20 100  70  20
Corsicana           94  77  85  70  91 /  20  20 100  60  20
Temple              94  75  85  69  92 /  10  10  60  30  10
Mineral Wells       96  72  88  69  91 /   0   5  50  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday morning for
TXZ095-105>107-121>123-135-146>148-160>162-174-175.

&&

$$