852
FXUS64 KFWD 012349
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
649 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

...New Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few lingering showers possible through the early evening with
  isolated storms possible (20% chance).

- Low storm chances (10-20%) will continue Wednesday through
  Friday for areas near/west of U.S. 281.

- Seasonable conditions will continue with highs in the 90s and
  heat indices between 99 to 103 degrees at times.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 124 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025/
/Today and Wednesday/

Scattered light and mostly elevated showers continue across
portions of western North Texas at midday, extending into our Red
River counties north of DFW. This activity persists within areas
of weak lift, modest moisture convergence, and high precipitable
water. Much of it is also occurring generally along and north of a
lingering boundary that pushed southward through much of North
Texas yesterday evening.

All that said, would expect much of this light precipitation to
continue on a scattered basis through the afternoon hours, with a
steady decrease in areal coverage occurring toward sunset.
Instability is a bit more pronounced along the ragged eastern
margins of the cloud field over Western North Texas, and believe
there is a small chance of additional convective development
occurring generally along the I-35 corridor as temperatures rise
this afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms are a possibility, though
the chances are pretty low.

Virtually all of the precipitation should cease by this evening,
and a partial erosion of cloud cover should occur overnight.
Partly cloudy and humid conditions - typical of early July -
should dominate North Texas Wednesday, as weak mid-level
subsidence reasserts itself.

Bradshaw

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 124 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025/
/Thursday through Monday/

A narrow ridge of mid level high pressure will remain oriented
over Eastern Texas through the end of the week, providing a moist
southwesterly upper flow across the western portions of our
region. Good deep layer moisture over this area should help
facilitate at least widely scattered showers and thunderstorms
across our far western counties Wednesday through Friday. Partial
cloudiness elsewhere across North Texas should thankfully help
restrain daytime highs from reaching above the mid 90s through the
end of the 4th of July Week.

As we reach the holiday weekend, the mean upper ridge will
retrograde to an axis west of our region. This will limit any
daily rain chances to all except the Red River counties of North
Texas. Afternoon highs will climb incrementally into the mid and
upper 90s, with heat indices once again approaching heat advisory
criteria in some locations by Sunday and Monday of the upcoming
work week.

Bradshaw

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

The isolated thunderstorm that developed near KDAL has since
dissipated and the outflow boundary/wind shift has washed out
before reaching KDFW. VFR conditions prevail at all terminals with
north to northeasterly winds at around 8 kts or less. Winds will
remain light and at times variable through the remainder of the
forecast period. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
expected to continue to develop west of D10 overnight (near and
south/west of KABI) and should primarily spread north toward the
Red River, with no impacts to any of the TAF sites anticipated.

12

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected through tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    77  94  76  92  77 /   5  10   5  10  20
Waco                76  94  75  90  75 /   5   5   5  20  10
Paris               72  91  74  91  74 /   5   5   5  10   5
Denton              73  93  74  92  74 /   5  10   5  10  20
McKinney            74  93  75  93  75 /   5  10   5  10  10
Dallas              78  94  77  92  77 /   5  10   5  10  10
Terrell             74  94  74  93  75 /   5  10   5  10  10
Corsicana           77  96  76  94  76 /   5   5   5  10  10
Temple              74  95  74  92  74 /   5  10   5  20  10
Mineral Wells       74  92  74  91  74 /  20  20  10  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$