875
FXUS64 KFWD 051748
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1248 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/This Afternoon through Saturday Night/

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across parts of North
Texas this afternoon as an outflow boundary pushes south of the
I-20 corridor. This activity is expected to increase in coverage
through the afternoon mainly along and just north of this
boundary. Latest RAP objective analysis indicates moderate
instability with MLCAPE >2000 J/kg throughout much of our Central
TX counties which will support locally robust updrafts. While
widespread severe weather is not expected, a few strong storms
could produce some gusty winds. Farther north, widespread rainfall
continues across northwest Texas closer to the actual cold
frontal boundary where weak synoptic ascent is also present thanks
to a subtle mid level shortwave. For the remainder of the
afternoon, scattered thunderstorms will continue with the highest
chances from the Metroplex south and west. PW values near 2 inches
and generally weak wind fields suggest that locally heavy rainfall
will be possible through the afternoon and early evening. Activity
should start to diminish in coverage later this evening with loss
of heating. We`ll maintain some low PoPs through the overnight
hours given the proximity of the surface boundaries and generally
moist airmass in place.

On Saturday, the frontal boundary should sag southward into
Central TX where a re-invigoration of convection should occur
through the early afternoon as we heat up and destabilize. We`ll
show increasing PoPs into the afternoon with coverage 40-50%. High
temperatures should be held in check by continued cloud cover and
rain chances with highs topping out in the lower 90s.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 349 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024/
Update:
The forecast trends discussed below remain on track with no
notable departures from the anticipated pattern in the evening
guidance. All eyes will be on the Gulf of Mexico through the
weekend and into early next week as Hurricane Beryl moves around
the southern and western periphery of the weakening ridge over the
Southeast. Though uncertainty continues in the forecast track,
strength and speed of Beryl, we are beginning to see a moderate
uptick in cumulative rainfall estimates for next week. In general,
1 to 3 inches of rainfall is expected through Thursday night with
lesser amounts west of Highway 281. There is currently about a
10% chance of rainfall totals exceeding 4 inches across portions
of Central Texas. These amounts have been and will likely continue
to trend higher in response to inland track adjustments over the
next few days.

12

Previous Discussion:
/Saturday Through Next Week/

After two full weeks dominated by oppressive ridging, a
significant pattern shift is underway. Texas will spend the next
several days underneath a col between a pair of ridges, one in the
West and another over the Southeast. This will mean increased
cloud cover and rain chances with below normal daytime
temperatures. This extended period of unsettled weather will
continue throughout the upcoming week, during which we may also
see impacts from a tropical system.

The aforementioned frontal boundary may linger on Saturday, a
weak disturbance aloft aiding in renewed development throughout
the daylight hours, more likely south of the I-20 corridor. With
the weakness aloft, another frontal system will dive into the
Central Plains this weekend. Although well north of us, its
associated surface low will return southerly winds to North and
Central Texas on Sunday, dissolving what`s left of our aging
front. This warm advection and increasing insolation will push
daytime temperatures back closer to normal values on Sunday. With
little inhibition, a few afternoon showers and storms may develop
Sunday afternoon within the deeper moisture across East Texas. The
more organized convection will be associated with the frontal
boundary in the Central Plains, the resulting MCS making a surge
at North Texas late Sunday night into Monday morning. Despite
seasonally tepid inflow, guidance is still convinced this will
occur. If so, it could bring widespread rain to the region on
Monday, which would then be a remarkably mild day.

Hurricane Beryl will spend the weekend crossing the Gulf of Mexico
along the northern edge of the Bay of Campeche. With weak steering
flow, there remains appropriate spread among ensemble members. But
with the West Coast ridging extended deep into the tropics, it`s
becoming increasingly likely that our col will be the favored
direction. Despite reasonable uncertainty at this time scale,
guidance is coming into better agreement with a landfall near the
mouth of the Rio Grande Monday morning. Beryl`s remnants would
then spread northward, bringing enhanced rain chances to North
and Central Texas Tuesday and Wednesday. It`s too early to discuss
amounts or locations, but this should further diminish our
negative mid-level height anomalies, maintaining our unseasonally
mild/wet pattern.

25

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

Outside of convection, VFR will prevail with north-northeast winds
10 to 15 kt through tonight. At this hour, an outflow boundary is
pushing south through the D10 airspace with scattered
thunderstorms developing along and north of the boundary. We`ll
start the TAFs off with VCTS and continue a TEMPO through 20Z for -TSRA.
The bulk of the activity should start to sag southward through
the afternoon and evening. VFR cigs will likely prevail overnight
tonight with new thunderstorms developing across Central Texas on
Saturday. At this time it appears that most of the convection on
Saturday will be south of the major airports, but we`ll continue
to monitor this potential.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    89  75  92  77  95 /  50  20  20   0  20
Waco                97  76  92  75  95 /  30  30  40  10  20
Paris               89  71  90  71  92 /  30  20  20   0  20
Denton              88  71  92  74  95 /  50  20  20   0  20
McKinney            88  72  91  74  94 /  50  20  20   5  20
Dallas              91  76  91  76  96 /  50  20  20   5  20
Terrell             92  73  90  73  93 /  50  20  30   5  20
Corsicana           95  76  92  76  95 /  40  20  40   5  20
Temple              97  75  93  74  96 /  20  20  50  10  20
Mineral Wells       89  71  91  72  95 /  60  30  20   0  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$