Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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307 FXUS64 KFWD 011808 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 108 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Tuesday/ East Texas will remain largely uncapped this afternoon, 70F+ dew points at peak heating assuring MLCAPE values approaching or exceeding 2000 J/kg. The richest corridor of moisture is mainly east of our area where dew point values are still >75F at this hour. Convective attempts will be possible this afternoon along the western periphery of this moisture axis, which will be within our CWA, but the majority of the afternoon activity will remain east of our easternmost counties. The mid-level ridge responsible for our current bout of heat continues its transit from west to east through the southern tier of states. During this process, 500mb heights have been at their maximum (>19,000ft AGL) yesterday and today (Sunday and Monday). Despite a steady decline in heights thereafter, the cumulative effect of the heat will mean that Tuesday will actually be the hottest day of the bunch. Deeper mixing will allow dew points to fall below 70F along and west of the I-35 corridor both today and tomorrow (Monday and Tuesday), minimum afternoon values a couple of degrees lower regionwide on Tuesday. But this reduced humidity will be offset by the increase in temperature, resulting in similar afternoon heat index values. Thus, the Heat Advisory has been extended for another day. There`s the potential for Excessive Heat Warning criteria to be met in portions of East Texas Tuesday afternoon, and the need for an upgrade will be assessed with subsequent forecast packages. 25 && .LONG TERM... /Issued 242 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024/ /Tuesday Night Through Next Weekend/ Triple digit heat will continue through the July 4th holiday with heat index values between 100 to 110 degrees both Wednesday and Thursday. Heat headlines will continue through mid to late week for most (if not all) of the region. Fortunately, some relief from the triple digit temperatures will arrive later in the week. A weak cold front will slide into the region on Friday as an upper level trough moves into the Plains. Low rain chances will return Thursday night and continue through Saturday as the front serves as a focus for shower and thunderstorm development. High temperatures will also drop into the 90s behind the front through the weekend, bringing a temporary end to our streak of triple digit temperatures. There is good consensus among ensemble guidance that the ridge will remain over the western CONUS as we head into next week. This may keep us in an unusually active pattern for mid July, with additional chances for showers and storms. Barnes && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /18Z TAFs/ VFR with south flow. Thunder potential confined to East Texas. A persistence forecast continues with daytime cumulus and passing cirrus. The diurnal variation in wind direction will introduce an easterly component during the afternoon/evening, but with speeds primarily under 10kts, a one-line TAF should suffice. Afternoon thunderstorms will be well east of the D10 but may impact eastern departures and arrivals through the Cedar Creek Cornerpost. These diurnally driven convective elements will dissipate around sunset with the loss of daytime heating. 25 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 101 82 102 82 101 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 99 79 101 79 99 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 95 77 99 79 98 / 10 5 5 0 0 Denton 101 79 103 80 101 / 0 0 0 0 0 McKinney 99 80 101 81 100 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dallas 101 81 102 83 101 / 0 0 0 0 0 Terrell 99 79 100 79 98 / 5 0 5 0 0 Corsicana 100 80 102 79 100 / 5 0 5 0 0 Temple 99 77 101 77 99 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 101 78 103 79 101 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ091>095-100>107- 115>123-131>135-144>148-158>162-174-175. && $$