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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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307 FXUS64 KFWD 301841 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 141 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Today and Tomorrow/ Hot weather will continue for the next couple days as large scale subsidence under an anomalously strong mid-level high height center dominates. The past few days we`ve had a high pressure system over East Texas/Louisiana that promoted southerly flow and kept dew points in the low to mid 70s. The high has elongated along the Gulf Coast, resulting in light surface flow over our region and weakening the influx of moisture. While the airmass will remain humid...deep mixing should result in a subtle daily reduction in dew point during peak heating. That`s the good news. The bad news is that the mid-level high will build and the low- level flow will veer, resulting in higher temperatures each afternoon for the next couple days. The net result will be a continuation of heat index values in the 105-112 range for most of the area. We will need to extend the Heat Advisory through Monday and may issue an Excessive Heat Warning across northeast Texas. The exception will be across parts of Western Central Texas (roughly west of I-35 and south of I-20) where the heat index will be within 1-2 degrees of the ambient temperature and there won`t be a need for additional heat products. A cold front did move into southern Oklahoma this morning that is helping develop scattered storms to our north. Most of this activity will remain out of our forecast area, however there is a 20% chance of an isolated storm along our Red River counties this afternoon. Similarly, as the mid-level ridge shifts, there is a 20% chance of isolated storms over East Texas tomorrow afternoon. Bonnette && .LONG TERM... /Issued 322 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024/ /Monday Night Through Next Weekend/ Widespread triple digit heat is expected throughout the week, with rain chances remaining near zero for most of the period. Despite a slight increase in temperatures, slightly lower humidity will keep heat index values close to or even slightly lower than we saw this past week - generally between 103-111 degrees. Expect ongoing heat headlines to continue through most of the week. Relief may be on the horizon, as there are indications the ridge will weaken late this week as a longwave trough/upper low moves into the Central CONUS. As a result, a weak front may slide into the region and would serve as a focus for showers and thunderstorms. The best potential for showers and storms is currently expected to be on Friday and Saturday. However, keep an eye on the forecast if you have any July 4th plans, as timing is subject to change over the next few days. This will likely bring a temporary end to our streak of triple digit temperatures, with high temperatures in the 90s currently forecast for next weekend. Barnes && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /18Z TAFs/ VFR and south flow will prevail through the valid TAF period. Wind speeds should generally remain AOB 10 kts, be out of the southwest between ~10-16Z, then the southeast between 20-05Z. No sig weather is expected at ACT or D10, but isolated storms could impact the Bowie cornerpost between about 19-00Z today and tomorrow afternoon. Bonnette && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 101 83 102 82 102 / 0 0 5 0 0 Waco 99 80 101 79 101 / 0 0 5 0 0 Paris 96 77 95 75 97 / 20 10 20 0 0 Denton 100 81 102 79 102 / 0 0 5 0 0 McKinney 100 80 101 79 101 / 5 5 10 0 0 Dallas 101 82 101 82 102 / 0 0 5 0 0 Terrell 99 78 100 78 99 / 0 0 10 0 0 Corsicana 98 80 100 80 101 / 0 0 10 0 0 Temple 99 79 101 77 101 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 100 78 102 78 103 / 0 0 5 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-100>107- 115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175. && $$