Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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899 FXUS64 KFWD 032039 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 339 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 ...New Long Term... .SHORT TERM... /Issued 1100 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024/ /This Afternoon Through Thursday Afternoon/ The heat will hang on through the Fourth of July holiday with North and Central Texas remaining on the western periphery of the ridge aloft. Shallow moisture will keep the sky mostly clear, allowing for maximum solar heating. Highs both this afternoon and Thursday will range from the upper 90s to around 104. Afternoon heat index values will remain in the 105 to 110 degree range for all but the southwest zones where dew points will mix out the most. We will maintain the Heat Advisory for all but the southwest zones through Thursday. The Heat Advisory will most likely not need to be extended for North Texas on Friday due to more clouds and the passage of a weak cold front (as discussed in the long term discussion below). The only concern other than the heat will be an uptick in fire starts since fuels have been drying out due to the heat, and there will be multiple ignition sources due to Independence Day celebrations. The good news is that sustained wind speeds will remain below 15 mph for the most part, so the threat for significant fire spread will stay low. 79 && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Thursday Evening Through the Middle of Next Week/ After two weeks of summer heat, the 4th of July will be the last day with triple-digit temperatures for the foreseeable future. A pattern shift will replace the heat with increased cloud cover, rain chances, and below normal daytime temperatures that will continue well into next week. The transition may begin as early as Thursday evening when showers and storms associated with an approaching cold front could enter our northwest counties. But even in those areas, holiday festivities are unlikely to be adversely impacted. Some of the activity may survive through the night as the front enters North Texas, but much of the region will have to wait until the daylight hours Friday for renewed development along the boundary. Weak shear should maintain a disorganized convective mode, and the severe potential remains low. However, adequate destabilization across Central and East Texas Friday afternoon could allow for a few strong storms, particularly if the front or outflow boundaries can reach those areas that reach the upper 90s one final time. Our prolonged rain-free period should limit the flood potential, but slow storm movement and precipitable water values topping 2 inches could yield isolated instances of heavy rainfall. As is often the case with mid-summer fronts, the boundary will steadily lose its definition on Saturday. However, it may still be able to focus convective initiation Saturday afternoon, especially if previous activity helps to enhance the boundary. Seasonal southerly flow will regain control on Sunday when abundant sunshine will push daytime temperatures back closer to normal values. With little inhibition, a few afternoon showers and storms may develop Sunday afternoon. But the more organized convection will be in the Central Plains, the resulting MCS making a surge at North Texas late Sunday night into Monday morning. This could bring widespread rain to the region Monday, which would then be a remarkably mild day. Hurricane Beryl will spend the weekend crossing the Gulf of Mexico along the northern edge of the Bay of Campeche. While it may remain within the tropical easterlies, it could also recurve toward the col atop the Lone Star State. Guidance diverges, with ECMWF ensemble members clustered around a second Mexico landfall and GEFS members favoring Texas. The GEPS (Canadian ensembles) are a compromise between the two, matching both the official NHC forecast and a majority of other dynamic model solutions that keep Beryl`s center south of Brownsville. However, the trend has been steadily northward with all available guidance. This is still several days away, but a more northerly path could bring Beryl`s post-landfall deluge to North and Central Texas. We will continue to assess this potential as Beryl approaches. 25 && .AVIATION... /Issued 1100 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024/ /18Z TAFs/ ...VFR and south flow... High pressure will hang on through the TAF period, yielding great flying weather across North Texas. Other than a few passing high clouds, the sky will be clear and no visibility restrictions are anticipated. A south wind will continue between 6 and 12 knots along with some daytime gusts around 20 knots. 79 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 100 83 101 80 93 / 0 0 0 20 40 Waco 99 78 99 78 97 / 0 0 0 5 20 Paris 98 79 98 75 91 / 0 0 5 30 30 Denton 101 80 102 77 93 / 0 5 0 30 40 McKinney 99 81 100 77 93 / 0 0 0 30 40 Dallas 101 82 101 80 95 / 0 0 0 20 40 Terrell 99 79 98 77 94 / 0 0 0 10 30 Corsicana 100 80 100 79 98 / 0 0 0 5 20 Temple 99 77 99 77 98 / 0 0 0 0 20 Mineral Wells 101 78 102 76 93 / 0 0 0 20 40 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ091>095-100>107- 115>123-131>135-144>148-158>162-174-175. && $$