760
FXUS64 KFWD 042032
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
332 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1243 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024/
/This Afternoon though Friday Night/

Hot and humid conditions continue this afternoon but changes are
on the way. Temperatures at this hour have climbed into the lower
90s with heat indices just above 100 degrees. We`ll top out with
actual air temperatures just above 100 later this afternoon.
Farther to our north, a cold front is draped across northern
Oklahoma and will continue to slide south through the afternoon as
stronger ridging shifts eastward and a shortwave digs through the
Central Plains. Scattered thunderstorms will develop later this
afternoon to our north and drift toward the Red River after dark.
The consensus among the short term guidance is that robust
convection to our north will send an outflow boundary southward
after midnight with the main line of storms weakening. Renewed
convective development will occur along this boundary and the
actual cold front on Friday morning mainly north of I-20. This
activity should drift south through the I-20 corridor through
midday with additional storms developing farther south later in
the day. We will also be watching the low potential that
thunderstorms don`t actually weaken overnight tonight and drift
southward, entering North Texas after midnight and continuing
through the early morning hours. Given this is the lower
probability scenario, we`ve raised PoPs on Friday to 40-60%
across the I-20 corridor with PoPs shifting southward through the
day. Most of the shower and thunderstorm activity will be
diurnally driven with a decrease in activity Friday evening and
night.

Along with the increased rain chances and cloud cover,
temperatures will be considerably cooler than the last several
days with highs topping out in the lower 90s in most locations.
Some areas closer to the Red River may remain in the 80s. A period
of cooler and more unsettled weather looks to continue into early
next week.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Saturday Through Next Week/

After two full weeks dominated by oppressive ridging, a
significant pattern shift is underway. Texas will spend the next
several days underneath a col between a pair of ridges, one in the
West and another over the Southeast. This will mean increased
cloud cover and rain chances with below normal daytime
temperatures. This extended period of unsettled weather will
continue throughout the upcoming week, during which we may also
see impacts from a tropical system.

The aforementioned frontal boundary may linger on Saturday, a
weak disturbance aloft aiding in renewed development throughout
the daylight hours, more likely south of the I-20 corridor. With
the weakness aloft, another frontal system will dive into the
Central Plains this weekend. Although well north of us, its
associated surface low will return southerly winds to North and
Central Texas on Sunday, dissolving what`s left of our aging
front. This warm advection and increasing insolation will push
daytime temperatures back closer to normal values on Sunday. With
little inhibition, a few afternoon showers and storms may develop
Sunday afternoon within the deeper moisture across East Texas. The
more organized convection will be associated with the frontal
boundary in the Central Plains, the resulting MCS making a surge
at North Texas late Sunday night into Monday morning. Despite
seasonally tepid inflow, guidance is still convinced this will
occur. If so, it could bring widespread rain to the region on
Monday, which would then be a remarkably mild day.

Hurricane Beryl will spend the weekend crossing the Gulf of Mexico
along the northern edge of the Bay of Campeche. With weak steering
flow, there remains appropriate spread among ensemble members. But
with the West Coast ridging extended deep into the tropics, it`s
becoming increasingly likely that our col will be the favored
direction. Despite reasonable uncertainty at this time scale,
guidance is coming into better agreement with a landfall near the
mouth of the Rio Grande Monday morning. Beryl`s remnants would
then spread northward, bringing enhanced rain chances to North
and Central Texas Tuesday and Wednesday. It`s too early to discuss
amounts or locations, but this should further diminish our
negative mid-level height anomalies, maintaining our unseasonally
mild/wet pattern.

25

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1243 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024/
/18Z TAFs/

VFR will prevail this afternoon and evening with south winds
around 10 kt but a cold front will approach the region later
tonight. Thunderstorms should develop along a cold front to the
north of the D10 airspace later this afternoon with most of the
activity remaining tied to the frontal boundary. This front will
slide southward into North Texas on Friday with scattered
showers/storms becoming more likely Friday morning through midday.
A wind shift to the north-northeast will accompany the frontal
boundary. Outside of any convective areas, VFR will prevail.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth   100  79  91  75  92 /   0  20  60  20  30
Waco                99  77  95  75  92 /   0   5  50  20  40
Paris               98  75  93  71  91 /   0  40  40  10  20
Denton             102  76  90  72  93 /   0  30  60  10  20
McKinney           100  77  90  73  92 /   0  30  60  10  20
Dallas             101  79  92  76  92 /   0  20  60  20  30
Terrell             98  77  91  72  91 /   0  20  50  20  30
Corsicana          100  78  94  75  93 /   0  10  40  20  40
Temple              99  76  96  75  93 /   0   0  30  20  40
Mineral Wells      102  76  91  71  91 /   0  20  60  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-131>135-144>148-158>162-174-175.

&&

$$