Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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790 FXUS64 KFWD 061110 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 610 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ Update: No major changes were made to the forecast after updating it with the latest data. We did trim the PoPs further south, keeping the mention of thunderstorms largely south of US-84 this afternoon. Bonnette Previous Discussion: /Today and Tonight/ This morning will start on the cool side of average for most in the wake of yesterday`s cold front. Parts of western North Texas will start the day 7-10 degrees below average with lows in the mid 60s while the rest of the area starts in the low to mid 70s. Yesterday`s cold front was able to move as far south as the Hill Country, but it will start to mix out this afternoon, then fully wash out tonight/early Sunday morning. Unfortunately, this means we`ll return to near seasonal norms this afternoon with highs topping out in the low 90s. Meager mid-level ascent around 700 mb should develop a few showers across the area early this morning. Limited instability should keep the threat of lightning low. Scattered showers and storms are expected to develop this afternoon across Central Texas, mainly in the vicinity of the surface front. All storms should end with the loss of heating this evening. South flow will return tonight and start to draw warm, moist air north in advance of our next weather-maker expected to move into the area Sunday night into Monday. Bonnette && .LONG TERM... /Issued 425 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024/ /Sunday Through Next Friday/ Key Messages: - Quick warm-up should push heat index values back into the triple digits on Sunday. - An MCS capable of producing strong wind gusts will move into North Texas Sunday night into Monday morning. - There is an increasing threat for heavy rainfall and flooding over portions of North and Central Texas associated with the landfall of Tropical Cyclone Beryl on Monday. Details: Southerly surface winds will begin to increase on Sunday in response to pressure falls in the lee of the Rockies. This will allow for a quick warm-up with afternoon temperatures climbing into the mid and upper 90s. Diurnal heating of the moistening boundary layer (bolstered by the tropical moisture associated with Tropical Storm Beryl) will result in triple digit heat index values. Though some locations are likely to flirt with Heat Advisory criteria during peak heating, the occurrence of these conditions is expected to be isolated and brief enough to preclude the need for heat headlines. The convection that will likely be ongoing across southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma at the start of the period may only make it as far as central Oklahoma before weakening and pushing east. This will generally leave North and Central Texas precipitation-free until the afternoon when the outer bands of Beryl begin moving up from the coast. By the early evening, thunderstorms will quickly develop along the southeastward surging cold front in Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Upscale growth is expected as these storms progress east/southeast into North Texas overnight and early Monday. Strong wind gusts and heavy rainfall will be the main concerns with this activity. Early Monday, the focus will be on the northwestern Gulf as Beryl reaches the coast. The latest NHC forecast calls for Tropical Storm Beryl to re-strengthen into a hurricane before making landfall somewhere along the middle Texas coast. As the system moves onshore, the current track arcs Beryl across the eastern half of our domain. Initially, the greatest threat for heavy rainfall will be east of the circulation, impacting Southeast and eastern Central Texas. However, as Beryl progresses further north/northeast (and becomes increasingly extratropical), the axis of heaviest rainfall will likely begin to wrap around the northern flank of the circulation. This will shift the flood threat further north and west across our area. We also cannot rule out the emergence of a localized tornado threat associated with the rain bands moving onshore. Rain/storm chances will persist through the end of the week as ridging over the Intermountain West and the southern Appalachians/Southeast maintains the position of the weakening trough over the central CONUS. The lingering tropical moisture should support daily chances for showers and storms. This extended rainy period should also keep temperature seasonable or slightly below climatological normals with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s and lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s. 12 && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /12Z TAFs/ VFR and light north flow will prevail this morning. A SCT to BKN cloud deck around 10-15 kft will develop a few showers early this morning across Central Texas. Scattered storms will develop this afternoon, generally south of ACT. Light south flow will return to the D10 terminals this afternoon and this evening at ACT. There is a 20-30% chance of MVFR ceilings developing across parts of the area late tonight/early Sunday morning. Our confidence regarding where the ceilings will develop and how low the ceilings will be is low at this point, therefore this detail was omitted from the 12Z TAFs. Bonnette && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 93 78 95 74 88 / 5 0 5 30 50 Waco 93 76 95 74 86 / 20 5 10 10 50 Paris 93 72 95 71 84 / 5 0 20 40 60 Denton 93 75 96 72 88 / 0 0 5 40 50 McKinney 93 74 95 72 86 / 5 0 10 40 50 Dallas 94 78 97 74 88 / 5 0 5 30 50 Terrell 92 74 94 73 86 / 5 0 10 30 50 Corsicana 93 76 95 76 87 / 20 0 20 20 50 Temple 93 75 96 74 86 / 20 5 10 10 50 Mineral Wells 93 73 95 71 89 / 5 0 0 30 40 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$