Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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255 FXUS64 KFWD 061622 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1122 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /This Afternoon through Sunday Night/ Mostly sunny and pleasant conditions prevail across North Texas at this hour behind yesterday`s cold front. The old boundary is draped across Central TX this morning and lower 70s dewpoints have already crept back into our southeast counties. While synoptic lift is generally weak across the Southern Plains this afternoon, heating along a broadly convergent zone in Central TX should lead to some scattered thunderstorms. This activity would mainly be across our far southern and southeastern counties and diminish in coverage this evening with loss of heating. Southerly flow will return to North Texas tonight and begin to pull moisture northward making it feel a little more humid. Overnight lows will be several degrees warmer as well with temperatures in the mid 70s expected. On Sunday, North and Central TX will be between an approaching cold front off to the north and Tropical Storm Beryl which will be making a run at the TX coastline. This will lead to relatively quiet conditions, although we will warm back into the mid 90s with increasing humidity. Heat indices will again climb back above 100 degrees for most locations. By Sunday night, thunderstorms are expected to erupt along the cold front across parts of Oklahoma and will likely move across the Red River late overnight. Areas north of I-20 will have the best chance for thunderstorms and some locally heavy rainfall. Rain chances will continue through the middle of the week with influence from the tropical system. More details on that below... Dunn && .LONG TERM... /Issued 425 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024/ /Sunday Through Next Friday/ Key Messages: - Quick warm-up should push heat index values back into the triple digits on Sunday. - An MCS capable of producing strong wind gusts will move into North Texas Sunday night into Monday morning. - There is an increasing threat for heavy rainfall and flooding over portions of North and Central Texas associated with the landfall of Tropical Cyclone Beryl on Monday. Details: Southerly surface winds will begin to increase on Sunday in response to pressure falls in the lee of the Rockies. This will allow for a quick warm-up with afternoon temperatures climbing into the mid and upper 90s. Diurnal heating of the moistening boundary layer (bolstered by the tropical moisture associated with Tropical Storm Beryl) will result in triple digit heat index values. Though some locations are likely to flirt with Heat Advisory criteria during peak heating, the occurrence of these conditions is expected to be isolated and brief enough to preclude the need for heat headlines. The convection that will likely be ongoing across southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma at the start of the period may only make it as far as central Oklahoma before weakening and pushing east. This will generally leave North and Central Texas precipitation-free until the afternoon when the outer bands of Beryl begin moving up from the coast. By the early evening, thunderstorms will quickly develop along the southeastward surging cold front in Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Upscale growth is expected as these storms progress east/southeast into North Texas overnight and early Monday. Strong wind gusts and heavy rainfall will be the main concerns with this activity. Early Monday, the focus will be on the northwestern Gulf as Beryl reaches the coast. The latest NHC forecast calls for Tropical Storm Beryl to re-strengthen into a hurricane before making landfall somewhere along the middle Texas coast. As the system moves onshore, the current track arcs Beryl across the eastern half of our domain. Initially, the greatest threat for heavy rainfall will be east of the circulation, impacting Southeast and eastern Central Texas. However, as Beryl progresses further north/northeast (and becomes increasingly extratropical), the axis of heaviest rainfall will likely begin to wrap around the northern flank of the circulation. This will shift the flood threat further north and west across our area. We also cannot rule out the emergence of a localized tornado threat associated with the rain bands moving onshore. Rain/storm chances will persist through the end of the week as ridging over the Intermountain West and the southern Appalachians/Southeast maintains the position of the weakening trough over the central CONUS. The lingering tropical moisture should support daily chances for showers and storms. This extended rainy period should also keep temperature seasonable or slightly below climatological normals with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s and lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s. 12 && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /18Z TAFs/ VFR with light east-northeast winds will prevail for the next few hours with winds becoming more southerly 5-10 kt later this afternoon. While a few storms may develop across parts of the region, this activity should be to the south of the major airports. South winds and VFR will prevail through Sunday with attention turning to approaching storms late Sunday night and a more active period Monday through midweek thanks to the tropical system in the Gulf. Dunn && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 93 77 96 75 88 / 0 0 0 20 50 Waco 93 75 96 75 86 / 10 5 5 5 50 Paris 93 71 94 72 84 / 5 0 5 30 60 Denton 93 74 98 71 88 / 0 0 5 30 50 McKinney 93 73 95 73 86 / 0 0 5 20 50 Dallas 94 77 97 74 88 / 0 0 0 20 50 Terrell 92 73 95 73 86 / 5 0 5 10 50 Corsicana 93 76 97 76 87 / 10 0 10 10 50 Temple 93 75 97 76 86 / 20 10 5 5 50 Mineral Wells 93 72 97 72 89 / 0 0 0 20 40 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$