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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD
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708 FXUS63 KFSD 170342 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 1042 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy fog is expected to develop overnight, with visibilities below 1 mile possible. If you encounter fog, slow down and drive to conditions. - Temperatures will be about 5-10 degrees below normal through the weekend. - Next better chance for showers and thunderstorms will be Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 After a small window late this afternoon where a few showers and thunderstorms in south central SD will be possible, drier air will settle in as high pressure at the surface builds. There will also be a threat for very isolated showers, possibly a rumble of thunder, in parts of southwest MN this evening, but severe weather is not expected. This will bring quiet weather tonight with dew points remaining in the lower 60s or dropping a bit. By morning, lows should fall into the upper 50s in most locations. Wednesday may start with some patchy fog, but will turn into a mostly sunny and mild day as dew points further fall into the mid 50s. Highs will top out mostly in the 70s with winds remaining on the lighter side as surface high pressure is stubborn to exit the area. Wednesday night into Thursday morning will see cool high pressure in place east of I-29 which will support some very cool morning lows in the lower 50s. Central SD should see some southerly flow so lows will be closer to 55 to 60. A wave will top the ridge in Montana Thursday night and settle south on Friday. This will bring stronger warm advection in the low to mid levels with an increased chance for showers and thunderstorms. Models soundings indicate about 1500 J/kg CAPE with minor deep shear so locally heavy rain and isolated severe storms should be the main threat. The better chances appear to be Friday night into Saturday. Temperatures Thursday and Friday look to remain below normal. Once this wave dips south, models are becoming more agreeable that an upper level low will dawdle around the Central Plains into early next week which would keep some cloud cover in place, periodic chances for showers and storms (especially diurnally driven) and continued below normal temperatures. The main threats during this time would be very local heavy rain with a good chance for very slow storm motion if something develops. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1036 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 With the latest round of showers exiting off to our east, the recent moisture with a strengthening surface inversion introduces chances for patchy fog across the region. Latest HREF data suggests the best chances (scattered 30-40%) for visibilities below a mile are expected for areas west of I-29, with probabilities along and east of I-29 lagging behind some of the latest models which show patchy visibilities of 3-5 miles. Winds will remain light and variable into the morning hours, becoming north-northeasterly throughout the day on Wednesday. Mostly dry conditions expected, though an isolated sprinkle can`t be ruled out. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...08 AVIATION...APT