466
FNUS75 KFGZ 161016
FWSFGZ

Spot Forecast for Crossroad Fire...USFS
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
316 AM MST Tue Jul 16 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0600 MST on July 16.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the
National Weather Service in Flagstaff, AZ

.DISCUSSION...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will mainly occur
between 200 PM-800 PM MST. Gusty, erratic winds of 35-45 mph will
be possible in and around thunderstorms, along with heavy rainfall
and small hail. Similar conditions are expected on Wednesday with
storms developing after 1100 AM MST. Outside of thunderstorms, expect
mainly light winds and near-normal temperatures. Afternoon RH values
will be in the teens to low 20s with good overnight recoveries.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny to partly sunny. Chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent after 200 PM MST.
Max temperature.....90 to 93.
Min humidity........15 to 20 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North to west winds 5 to 15 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds 35-45 mph expected near thunderstorms.
LAL.................3.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Max Vent Rate.......Good.
Clearing Index......491.
Mixing height.......9700 ft AGL in the morning increasing to 13100
                    ft AGL late in the morning, then decreasing to
                    1900 ft AGL late in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....West around 5 knots shifting to the north late
                    in the morning, then shifting to the south
                    early in the afternoon shifting to the
                    southwest late in the afternoon.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly to partly cloudy. Chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent before 800 PM MST.
Min temperature.....56 to 59.
Max humidity........70 to 80 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds around 5 to 10 mph, becoming light
                    overnight. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms in the evening.
LAL.................3.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Min Vent Rate.......Poor.
Clearing Index......3.
Mixing height.......100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 5 knots.

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny then becoming mostly cloudy. Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent after 1100 AM MST.
Max temperature.....91 to 94.
Min humidity........20 to 25 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds around 5 mph shifting to the west
                    5-15 mph in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic
                    winds 35-45 mph expected near thunderstorms in
                    the afternoon.
LAL.................3.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Max Vent Rate.......Good.
Clearing Index......654.
Mixing height.......8600 ft AGL in the morning increasing to 11800
                    ft AGL late in the morning, then decreasing to
                    700 ft AGL late in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northwest around 5 knots shifting to the
                    northeast late in the morning, then shifting to
                    the south early in the afternoon shifting to
                    the west late in the afternoon.

$$
Forecaster...MEOLA
Requested by...rollie.britton@usda.gov
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2418079.5/FGZ
.DELDT 07/16/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL rollie.britton@usda.gov