498
FNUS75 KFGZ 140527
FWSFGZ

Spot Forecast for Reservation Fire...USFS
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1027 PM MST Sat Jul 13 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 2300 MST on July 13.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the
National Weather Service in Flagstaff, AZ

.DISCUSSION...There will be a chance for afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms each day. Winds outside of storm activity
are forecast to be light, generally 10 mph or less. However, winds
during the afternoon and evening are likely to be impacted by storm
outflows, with gusty and shifting winds.

.REST OF TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy with a slight chance of a light
                    shower.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 54.
Max humidity........45 to 55 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Variable 5 mph or less.
LAL.................1.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Min Vent Rate.......Poor.
Clearing Index......1.
Mixing height.......100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North around 5 knots shifting to the northeast
                    after 3 am.

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny then becoming mostly cloudy. Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 87.
Min humidity........16 to 19 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Variable less than 5 mph becoming south to
                    southwest 5 to 8 mph in the afternoon. Gusty
                    and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
                    in the afternoon.
LAL.................4.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Max Vent Rate.......Good.
Clearing Index......685.
Mixing height.......9900 ft AGL in the morning increasing to 12300
                    ft AGL late in the morning, then decreasing to
                    300 ft AGL late in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northeast around 5 knots shifting to the
                    southeast early in the afternoon, then shifting
                    to the west late in the afternoon.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy then becoming partly cloudy.
                    Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 54.
Max humidity........70 to 80 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Variable up to 10 mph, except gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
LAL.................4.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Min Vent Rate.......Poor.
Clearing Index......1.
Mixing height.......100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 5 knots.

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny then becoming mostly cloudy. Slight
                    chance of rain showers in the morning, then
                    showers and thunderstorms likely in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 85.
Min humidity........23 to 26 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds around 5 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
LAL.................4.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Max Vent Rate.......Good.
Clearing Index......538.
Mixing height.......9200 ft AGL in the morning increasing to 12300
                    ft AGL late in the morning, then decreasing to
                    900 ft AGL late in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....North 5 to 10 knots.

$$
Forecaster...JOHNDROW
Requested by...Christina Brannon
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2418005.1/FGZ
.DELDT 07/14/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL christina.brannon@usda.gov