701
FNUS75 KFGZ 151830
FWSFGZ

Spot Forecast for Fourth Hallow...BIA
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1130 AM MST Mon Jul 15 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1200 MST on July 15.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the
National Weather Service in Flagstaff, AZ

.DISCUSSION...Isolated to scattered storms will start developing in
the area in the next 1-3 hours. Thunderstorms could produce small hail,
especially if the core of the storm passes directly overhead. They
will also produce heavy rainfall rates. Afternoon RH minimums remain
elevated thanks to the increase in moisture. Likewise, recoveries
remain good. SW winds this morning will become outflow dominated in
the afternoon from thunderstorms.

Expecting little change in the forecast for tomorrow from what will be
observed today. Temperatures will warm quickly in the morning thanks
to morning clearing before clouds and storms develop early in the
afternoon with elevated RHs. West to SW winds in the morning will become
outflow dominated in the afternoon from thunderstorms.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny. Chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 92.
Min humidity........25 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds around 5 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
LAL.................3.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Max Vent Rate.......Good.
Clearing Index......569.
Mixing height.......10800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 5 to 10 knots.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy then becoming partly cloudy.
                    Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the
                    evening.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 63.
Max humidity........69 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms in the evening.
LAL.................3.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Min Vent Rate.......Poor.
Clearing Index......1.
Mixing height.......100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 10 knots shifting to the
                    southeast in the late evening and overnight.

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny then becoming mostly cloudy. Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms after 1200.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 93.
Min humidity........23 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.
LAL.................3.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Max Vent Rate.......Very good.
Clearing Index......879.
Mixing height.......8800 ft AGL in the morning increasing to 13600
                    ft AGL late in the morning, then decreasing to
                    200 ft AGL late in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....North around 5 knots shifting to the northwest
                    in the afternoon.

$$
Forecaster...ROAKES
Requested by...E-5263
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2418112.0/FGZ
.DELDT 07/15/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL azsdc@firenet.gov