920
FXUS65 KFGZ 061610
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
910 AM MST Sat Jul 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Hot and dry conditions will continue for most of
northern Arizona into early next week. A slow return of monsoon
moisture is possible toward the middle or end of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...Some moisture looks to remain near the White Mountains,
with dewpoints around 40-50F. Daytime heating should allow for
destabilization this afternoon which combined with orographic
effects around the White Mountains, should allow for an isolated
shower or thunderstorm to develop this afternoon. 12Z guidance
from both the HREF and U of Arizona WRF seem to support this, so
a slight chance was introduced into the forecast with the morning
update.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /432 AM MST/...Tranquil weather conditions are
taking place across northern Arizona this morning with cool, near
average temperatures. A strong high pressure system remains in
place for today, centered over northern California. Expect another
afternoon of hot and dry conditions with 5-10 degree above
average high temperatures. Light northeast winds this morning
should shift to west-northwest by early this afternoon with gusts
of 10-20 mph.

This hot and dry pattern continues through Tuesday with Excessive
Heat Warnings for our lower elevation locations extended through
then. Anticipate north-northwest winds, 10-20 mph, each afternoon
with gusts of up to 30 mph on Sunday. As we progress through the
weekend, the high pressure system is expected to migrate gradually
towards the southeast, eventually positioning itself directly
overhead the Colorado River Valley by Tuesday. By that time,
moisture looks to creep back into the White Mountains from the
south with isolated thunderstorms possible in the afternoon.
Another round of isolated showers and storms is forecast for
Wednesday afternoon with slight chances (15-20%) extending to
I-17.

As we head into the latter half of this upcoming week,
precipitation chances and coverage look to increase as moisture
and PWATs begin an upward trend, according to the current EPS and
GEFS data. Ensemble guidance suggests PWATs returning to normal
for this time of year by next weekend as the high pressure system
continues is migration eastward, allowing a better moisture influx
from the south. No indications of any moisture surge anytime soon,
however, anything is better than these hot, above average
temperatures and very dry conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 06/12Z through Sunday 07/12Z...VFR conditions
are forecast. Winds becoming west to northwest at 5-15 kts
this afternoon, diminishing overnight.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 07/12Z through Tuesday 09/12Z...VFR conditions
continue. West to northwest winds increasing on Sunday to around
15 kts gusting up to 25 kts shifting on Monday to northwest to
north around 10-20 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Sunday...Hot and dry weather is forecast
with just a slight chance of a stray afternoon thunderstorm over the
White Mountains area. Expect north to northwest winds at 5 to 15 mph
each day. Minimum afternoon relative humidity will be a dry 3-12%,
recovering overnight to 15-30%.

Monday through Wednesday...Hot and dry conditions will continue. An
isolated afternoon shower or thunderstorm will be possible over the
eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains, spreading northwestward on
Wednesday. Light west to northwest winds at 5-15 mph are forecast.
Minimum afternoon relative humidity 5-15%, recovering overnight to
15-45%.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Tuesday for
AZZ005-006-037.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Humphreys/LaGuardia
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...McCollum

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff