151
FXUS65 KFGZ 040859
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
159 AM MST Thu Jul 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Hot and dry conditions will continue for most of
northern Arizona into early next week. The chance for showers and
storms will be limited to the White Mountains through Monday,
with a slow return of monsoon moisture possible later next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A strong high pressure system currently centered
just off the California coast will slowly migrate eastward across
the western states over the coming days. High pressure can be our
friend during the monsoon delivering moisture from the south for
daily thunderstorms. The monsoon high generally approaches from
the east. Unfortunately, the high pressure system we`re observing
is heading in from the west which usually delivers a hot and dry
air mass with origins from over the Great Basin.

From today through Monday...Look for dry conditions with
generally hot days but relatively cool nights as the drier air
mass will allow for decent radiational cooling. The nighttime
cooling will be most prominent from the Mogollon Rim northward but
less so south of the Rim where limited moisture will linger. High
temperatures the next few days will range from 10 to 15 degrees
above normal which translates to very hot. As a result, an
Excessive Heat Warning is in effect for the lower desert regions
of Arizona through at least Monday where temperatures in excess of
110 degrees are likely. The White Mountains of far east-central
will see slight chances for afternoon storms, generally less than
20%, where some monsoon moisture will linger.

Looking at Tuesday Onward...Will the monsoon make a return? The
model averages from this morning say yes but the trend has been
for the models to keep pushing the return further into the future.
So our confidence in next weeks return is low.

&&

.AVIATION...Thursday 04/06Z through Friday 05/06Z...VFR conditions
will continue under mostly clear skies. Light winds overnight, becoming
NW to N around 10 kts gusting up to 20 kts Thursday afternoon.

OUTLOOK...Friday 05/06Z through Sunday 07/06Z...Expect VFR
conditions with northerly winds 10-20 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Friday...Dry and hot conditions, with
highs 5-10 degrees above normal. Winds north/northwest 5-10 mph,
becoming north on Friday. Minimum afternoon RH 3-12%, recovering
overnight to 15-30%.

Saturday through Monday...Hot and dry conditions continue. Slight
chances for showers and thunderstorms gradually increasing each day,
mainly over the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. Northerly
winds 10-15 mph, strongest on Sunday with gusts 20-25 mph. Minimum
afternoon RH 5-15%, recovering overnight to 15-45%.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM MST /noon MDT/ this morning to
8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Monday for AZZ005-006-037.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...McCollum
AVIATION...MCT
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff