471
FXUS65 KFGZ 052339
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
439 PM MST Fri Jul 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Hot and dry conditions will continue for most of
northern Arizona into early next week. A slow return of monsoon
moisture is possible toward the middle or end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Breezy and very dry north-northeast winds continue
early this afternoon. Pressure gradients tightened overnight
resulting in these increased breezes, especially just downwind of
the higher terrain. Monsoon moisture has been completely scoured
out of our forecast area with surface dewpoints ranging from
10-20F for most locations. Temperatures are actually running a few
degrees lower than 24 hrs ago along/north of the Mogollon Rim with
the northerly flow. South of the rim is warmer though. The very
strong ridge continues to be centered over northern California
today, and will slowly drift southeast closer to Arizona over the
next few days and result in an extended heat wave for the state. A
trough moving down through the Rockies will tighten gradients
again Sunday across the region with gusty northwest winds 15-20
mph and gusts 25-30 mph expected. The Excessive Heat Warning below
4000 feet continues through Tuesday for now and may need to be
extended farther into next week with subsequent shifts. As far as
monsoon moisture goes, with the dry northerly flow of the next few
days, we removed even the low rain chances in the White Mtns
through Monday. Later in the week, some of the guidance shifts the
center of high pressure due north or even a bit northeast of our
area which could allow for some moisture to move in from the east.
It does seem that each day this gets pushed farther into the
future, which would require the heat products to be extended. Low
PoPs return from the Mogollon Rim south and east Tuesday through
the end of the week, but even this could be a bit too aggressive.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 06/00Z through Sunday 07/00Z...VFR conditions
with mostly clear skies will continue. N to NE winds 5-15 kts
gusting up to 25 kts...becoming light and variable after 04Z for
most areas except KSEZ which will see elevated NE winds overnight.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 07/00Z through Tuesday 09/00Z...VFR conditions
continue. Expect northerly daytime winds around 10 kts on
Saturday, becoming light and variable overnight. NW winds around
15 kts with gusts to 25 kts on Sunday into Monday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...This afternoon through Sunday...Hot conditions, with
highs 5-10 degrees above normal. A few showers or storms possible
over southern Apache County on Saturday. Northerly winds 5-15 mph
today and Saturday. Minimum afternoon RH 3-12%, recovering overnight
to 15-30%.

Monday through Wednesday...Hot and dry conditions continue. An
isolated shower or thunderstorm possible on Tuesday over the eastern
Mogollon Rim and White Mountains and spreading northwest on
Wednesday. Light winds on Monday becoming westerly 10 to 20 MPH on
on Tuesday and Wednesday. Minimum afternoon RH 5-15%, recovering
overnight to 15-45%.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Tuesday for
AZZ005-006-037.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...MCT
FIRE WEATHER...MAS

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff