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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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530 FXUS65 KFGZ 072021 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 121 PM MST Sun Jul 7 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Hot and dry conditions will continue through Tuesday before monsoon moisture gradually returns to northern Arizona. Chances for showers and thunderstorm chances will increase as we head towards the weekend. && .DISCUSSION...Strong high pressure will keep us dry through Monday across the entire area. As the high starts to shift to the east moisture gradually returns to the state with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. Through Tuesday...the high remains in control and starts to shift eastward each day. With considerable dry air in place we will continue to see near record to record high temperatures across the lower elevations and deserts. Moisture may start to creep in from the southeast bringing in some very isolated showers or thunderstorms towards the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains but with such dry air in place it will be hard to get much more than some sprinkles or virga. Wednesday through the weekend...the high pushes more to the east and the moisture will start to build each day across the region. Shower and thunderstorm activity will be focused across the White Mountains and eastern Mogollon Rim on Wednesday but will start to spread westward each day, becoming more widespread by Saturday and Sunday. With the high settled to our east, we can expect the southerly flow to continue into next week. Looking a bit further out, the pattern may hold with the high wobbling a bit back to the west and then to the east. Hopefully this is a good sign that the monsoon will hang around for while this month. With the influx of moisture we should see a bit more cloud cover through the day which will help bring some relief from the heat we have had of late. However, it will still be warm to hot across northern Arizona with warmer nights due to the increased cloud cover. && .AVIATION...Sunday 07/18Z through Monday 08/18Z...VFR conditions with W/NW winds 10-15 kts with gusts 20-25 kts before 03Z, then becoming light and variable. OUTLOOK...Monday 08/18Z through Wednesday 10/18Z...Mainly VFR conditions, with MVFR possible during the afternoon Tuesday in vicinity of KSOW/KJTC. Winds W-NE 5-10 kts. && .FIRE WEATHER...Monday and Tuesday...Warm and dry conditions are expected, outside a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms near the White Mountains on Tuesday. Northerly winds 10-15 mph, gusting up to 20 mph. Minimum afternoon RH 5-15%, recovering overnight to 15- 25% over northwest Arizona and 35-45% over central and eastern Arizona. Wednesday through Friday...Warm temperatures continue, along with gradually increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain. West through north winds 10-15 mph. Afternoon RH gradually rising each day from 8-16% on Wednesday, to 10-25% on Friday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Tuesday for AZZ005-006-037. && $$ PUBLIC...Meola AVIATION...Humphreys FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff