302
FXUS65 KFGZ 072325
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
425 PM MST Sun Jul 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Hot and dry conditions will continue through Tuesday
before monsoon moisture gradually returns to northern Arizona.
Chances for showers and thunderstorm chances will increase as we
head towards the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Strong high pressure will keep us dry through Monday
across the entire area. As the high starts to shift to the east
moisture gradually returns to the state with increasing chances for
showers and thunderstorms.

Through Tuesday...the high remains in control and starts to shift
eastward each day. With considerable dry air in place we will
continue to see near record to record high temperatures across the
lower elevations and deserts. Moisture may start to creep in from
the southeast bringing in some very isolated showers or
thunderstorms towards the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains
but with such dry air in place it will be hard to get much more than
some sprinkles or virga.

Wednesday through the weekend...the high pushes more to the east and
the moisture will start to build each day across the region. Shower
and thunderstorm activity will be focused across the White Mountains
and eastern Mogollon Rim on Wednesday but will start to spread
westward each day, becoming more widespread by Saturday and Sunday.
With the high settled to our east, we can expect the southerly flow
to continue into next week. Looking a bit further out, the pattern
may hold with the high wobbling a bit back to the west and then to
the east. Hopefully this is a good sign that the monsoon will hang
around for while this month. With the influx of moisture we should
see a bit more cloud cover through the day which will help bring
some relief from the heat we have had of late. However, it will
still be warm to hot across northern Arizona with warmer nights due
to the increased cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 08/00Z through Tuesday 09/00Z...VFR conditions
with W/NW winds 10-15 kts with gusts 20-30 kts, becoming light
and variable after 03Z.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 09/00Z through Thursday 11/00Z...Mainly VFR
conditions, with MVFR possible during Tuesday afternoon in
vicinity of KSOW/KJTC due to ISO SHRA/TSRA. Winds W-NE 5-10 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Monday and Tuesday...Warm and dry conditions are
expected, outside a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms near
the White Mountains on Tuesday. Northerly winds 10-15 mph, gusting
up to 20 mph. Minimum afternoon RH 5-15%, recovering overnight to 15-
25% over northwest Arizona and 35-45% over central and eastern
Arizona.

Wednesday through Friday...Warm temperatures continue, along with
gradually increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms over the
higher terrain. West through north winds 10-15 mph. Afternoon RH
gradually rising each day from 8-16% on Wednesday, to 10-25% on
Friday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Tuesday for
AZZ005-006-037.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Meola
AVIATION...Meola
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff