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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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065 FXUS65 KFGZ 021035 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 335 AM MST Tue Jul 2 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Shower and thunderstorm activity will start to fade out today and Wednesday, as drier air moves in from the north. Expect scattered coverage today, but mainly south of I-40 and east of I-17. Activity becomes more isolated by Wednesday, mostly over the White Mountains. From Thursday onward, expect dry weather and rising temperatures. A very hot Fourth of July weekend is on tap and it will continue into next week. && .DISCUSSION...A complicated pattern over the southwestern United States can be summed up simply, we are going to dry out and heat up in the coming days. The trough that has been to our north for several days is pulling eastward tonight, with active convection still forming ahead of the trough axis. Drier and more subsident air behind the trough is already filtering into northwestern Arizona tonight and will continue to seep southeastward over the next few days. The trough will also push the subtropical high east as it moves away, with a stronger high moving into the western United States, from the Pacific, heading into next weekend. This pattern will shut off our moisture source and the Pacific high will relentlessly push dry, warm and stable air from north to south across our CWA. Enough moisture remains today for more showers and thunderstorms across our southern zones, roughly from east-central Yavapai County to the White Mtns. This area shrinks even more on Wednesday, really just the White Mtns at that point. From Thursday onward, we are dry and start to really heat up. The Pacific high stays to our west for a few days, but by the weekend and early next week, it moves into western Arizona. This could be a very hot pattern, record heat. Dangerous heat impacts may develop late in our forecast period, stay tuned. && .AVIATION...Tuesday 02/06Z through Wednesday 03/06Z...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop primarily near the White Mountains region Tuesday afternoon. Winds may be gusty and erratic near thunderstorms. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail over northern Arizona through the TAF period. OUTLOOK...Wednesday 03/06Z through Friday 05/06Z...Isolated thunderstorms are forecast to develop along the Mogollon Rim Wednesday afternoon, with dry conditions forecast over northern Arizona Thursday. Primarily VFR conditions are forecast over northern Arizona. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Wednesday...Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected mainly along the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains today, then again in the Whites on Wednesday. Winds west/southwest 5-10 mph, becoming west 10-15 mph on Wednesday. Thursday through Saturday...Dry conditions are expected, outside of a slight chance for showers in the White Mountains on Saturday. Warming temperatures with northwest through northeast winds 10-15 mph. Afternoon RH values 5-15%, with overnight recoveries 20-40%. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Peterson AVIATION...TM FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff