515
FXUS65 KFGZ 031623
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
923 AM MST Wed Jul 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Hot and dry conditions continue for most of northern
Arizona through the weekend and into early next week. Any chances
for showers will be limited to the White Mountains for the time
being.

&&

.UPDATE...Dry air continues to filter in to our region from the
northwest. Precipitable water values on the 4 AM sounding at
Bellemont have fallen from 0.67" Tuesday to 0.43" this morning.
This dry air covers most of our region, with areas south of a
Payson to Heber to St Johns hanging on to some limited moisture
and a chance of afternoon showers/thunderstorms today. Minor
forecast update to spread these chances slightly farther west to
near Payson has been sent, otherwise no forecast changes are
needed.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /425 AM MST/...Today...Drier, westerly flow aloft
will keep preciptation at bay for much northern Arizona. Some
remnant moisture near the White Mountains will allow for a few
isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, however this
activity should largely be minimal.

Temperatures also begin to rise today as high pressure begins to
build over California. High temperatures this afternoon look to be
around 5 degrees above normal.

Thursday and Friday...High pressure continues to build over
California, keeping warming temperatures in the forecast. With
increasing confidence in excessive heat in the lower elevations, the
Excessive Heat Watch has been upgraded to a warning. Northerly flow
aloft will continue to keep moisture mainly limited to the lower
deserts of southern Arizona. A rouge isolated shower can not be
ruled out along the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains in the
afternoon, but for now chances will remain below any mentionable
values.

Saturday through Tuesday...Heights continue to rise over Arizona as
the area of high pressure shifts eastward and becomes centered over
the Lower Colorado River Valley. Temperatures continue to rise, with
highs nearing 10 degrees above normal. Much of the lower elevations
look to be above 100F with the lowest elevations near or even above
110F. Thus, the Excessive Heat Warning has been extended through the
holiday weekend and into Monday.

Moisture largely remains outside of the region, however it does look
to gradually increase on the southern fringes of the CWA. Guidance
especially begins to diverge into next week as Hurricane Beryl
potentially makes landfall in Texas/northern Mexico. Although with
the strength of the high in place, any moisture that is sent this
way looks to have minimal impact with mostly just an increase in
afternoon cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION...Wednesday 03/12Z through Thursday 04/12Z...Expect VFR
conditions. ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA possible from 19Z-01Z, mainly SE of a
KSOW-KSJN line. Daytime sfc winds SW-W10-20kts, otherwise light.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 04/12Z through Saturday 06/12Z...Expect VFR
conditions and light winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Thursday...Shower and thunderstorm chances
retreat to southern Apache County this afternoon, with dry
conditions Thursday. Temperatures will climb well above normal
during this period. Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph today become
lighter on Thursday, with a switch to northerly.

Friday through Sunday...Hot and dry conditions are expected. Very
slight chances for showers and thunderstorms over or south of the
White Mountains with little if any measurable rainfall. Daily
northwest through northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM MST /noon MDT/ Thursday to 8
PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Monday for AZZ005-006-037.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ/Humphreys
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...MAS

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff