704
FXUS65 KFGZ 081542
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
842 AM MST Mon Jul 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Hot and mostly dry conditions will persist through
mid-week, with chances for showers/thunderstorms gradually
increasing each day starting on Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...Smoke from wildfires in southern Utah have made for a
hazy start to the morning, however conditions should begin to
improve (at least at the surface) as winds increase through the
day. Dry, and slightly cooler (but still hot) temperatures are
otherwise expected today. A few fair weather cumulus look to
bubble up over the Mogollon Rim but that`s about it for today.

No major changes needed this morning, with only minor updates to
add the latest HRRR smoke guidance in the short term.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /435 AM MST/...An area of high pressure will
continue to bring hot temperatures (averaging 5-15 degrees above
normal) for the next few days. The Excessive Heat Warning remains
in effect for the lower elevations of Yavapai County and areas
below 4000 feet in the Grand Canyon and Marble/Glen Canyons. This
product has been extended through Wednesday evening for the Grand
Canyon and Marble/Glen Canyons zones, but is still forecast to
expire Tuesday evening for the lower elevations of Yavapai County
due to increased precipitation chances. Dangerously hot
temperatures will likely persist through the end of the week for
the previously mentioned canyon zones, but further extensions of
this product will be decided as we progress through the week.

The high pressure system will slowly wobble eastward through the
week keeping mostly dry air in place today and tomorrow, but
enough moisture could funnel up from the southeast to stir up
isolated showers/thunderstorms near the White Mountains/Mogollon
Rim Tuesday afternoon. By Wednesday, PWAT values look to increase
for many places south of I-40 as this ridge continues eastward.

Over the weekend/early next week...The center of the high
pressure system is forecast to settle over the Four Corner by
Saturday, becoming a more favorable monsoon pattern for Arizona.
As a result, precipitation chances become widespread over the
weekend and into the beginning of next week. This active pattern
could hold until the middle of next week, but there is still
uncertainty on how long this pattern will stick around. Either
way, look for daily chances for showers/thunderstorms for most of
northern Arizona by Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 08/12Z through Tuesday 09/12Z...Look for VFR
conditions. Northerly winds at 10-15 kts with gusts 20 kts
developing after 17Z. Winds becoming light and variable after
03Z. Haze and smoke may reduce visibilities, especially near KPGA.


OUTLOOK...Tuesday 09/12Z through Thursday 11/12Z...Expect mainly
VFR conditions outside of isolated SHRA/TSRA along and south of a
KFLG-KSJN line. Gusty and erratic winds in the vicinity of
SHRA/TSRA. Otherwise, winds light and variable at 5-10 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Tuesday...Hot and dry conditions are
expected, outside of a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms
near the White Mountains on Tuesday. Northerly winds 10-15 mph
gusting up to 20 mph each day. Minimum afternoon RH values of 5-15%
with overnight recoveries to 15-25% over northwest Arizona, 35-45%
over central and eastern Arizona.

Wednesday through Friday...Hot but with gradually increasing chances
for showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain. Daytime winds
light and variable at 5 to 10 mph. Afternoon RH gradually rising
each day from 8-16% on Wednesday to 10-25% on Friday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Wednesday for
AZZ005-006.

Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Tuesday for AZZ037.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Humphreys/Konieczny
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...McCollum

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff