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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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471 FXUS65 KFGZ 052339 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 439 PM MST Fri Jul 5 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Hot and dry conditions will continue for most of northern Arizona into early next week. A slow return of monsoon moisture is possible toward the middle or end of next week. && .DISCUSSION...Breezy and very dry north-northeast winds continue early this afternoon. Pressure gradients tightened overnight resulting in these increased breezes, especially just downwind of the higher terrain. Monsoon moisture has been completely scoured out of our forecast area with surface dewpoints ranging from 10-20F for most locations. Temperatures are actually running a few degrees lower than 24 hrs ago along/north of the Mogollon Rim with the northerly flow. South of the rim is warmer though. The very strong ridge continues to be centered over northern California today, and will slowly drift southeast closer to Arizona over the next few days and result in an extended heat wave for the state. A trough moving down through the Rockies will tighten gradients again Sunday across the region with gusty northwest winds 15-20 mph and gusts 25-30 mph expected. The Excessive Heat Warning below 4000 feet continues through Tuesday for now and may need to be extended farther into next week with subsequent shifts. As far as monsoon moisture goes, with the dry northerly flow of the next few days, we removed even the low rain chances in the White Mtns through Monday. Later in the week, some of the guidance shifts the center of high pressure due north or even a bit northeast of our area which could allow for some moisture to move in from the east. It does seem that each day this gets pushed farther into the future, which would require the heat products to be extended. Low PoPs return from the Mogollon Rim south and east Tuesday through the end of the week, but even this could be a bit too aggressive. && .AVIATION...Saturday 06/00Z through Sunday 07/00Z...VFR conditions with mostly clear skies will continue. N to NE winds 5-15 kts gusting up to 25 kts...becoming light and variable after 04Z for most areas except KSEZ which will see elevated NE winds overnight. OUTLOOK...Sunday 07/00Z through Tuesday 09/00Z...VFR conditions continue. Expect northerly daytime winds around 10 kts on Saturday, becoming light and variable overnight. NW winds around 15 kts with gusts to 25 kts on Sunday into Monday morning. && .FIRE WEATHER...This afternoon through Sunday...Hot conditions, with highs 5-10 degrees above normal. A few showers or storms possible over southern Apache County on Saturday. Northerly winds 5-15 mph today and Saturday. Minimum afternoon RH 3-12%, recovering overnight to 15-30%. Monday through Wednesday...Hot and dry conditions continue. An isolated shower or thunderstorm possible on Tuesday over the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains and spreading northwest on Wednesday. Light winds on Monday becoming westerly 10 to 20 MPH on on Tuesday and Wednesday. Minimum afternoon RH 5-15%, recovering overnight to 15-45%. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Tuesday for AZZ005-006-037. && $$ PUBLIC...JJ AVIATION...MCT FIRE WEATHER...MAS For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff