937
FXUS65 KFGZ 051800
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1100 AM MST Fri Jul 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Hot and dry conditions will continue for most of
northern Arizona into early next week. The chance for showers and
storms will be limited to the White Mountains through Monday,
with a slow return of monsoon moisture possible later next week.

&&

.UPDATE...Sent an update for this morning`s winds as they are
gusting 20-30 mph from the northeast over much of the area,
especially just downstream from higher terrain. Flagstaff, Sedona,
and Tusayan have measured 30+ mph gusts. Surface pressure
gradients tightened overnight as a surface high settled in from
the north. These should relax a bit during the day, with wind
speeds gradually decreasing. Otherwise, another hot and dry day is
headed our way.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /438 AM MST/...A strong high pressure system was
centered over the California coast during the early morning hours
and is forecast to slowly wobble eastward across the western
states over the coming days.

For today through Tuesday...The high center will remain to the
northwest of Arizona delivering a mainly hot and dry northerly
flow from over the Great Basin. High temperatures the will range
from 5 to 15 degrees above normal through this period which means
exceptionally hot weather. As a result, an Excessive Heat Warning
is in effect for the lower desert regions of Arizona through
Tuesday where temperatures in excess of 110 degrees are likely.
But no one will escape the heat with such a strong high in place.
The White Mountains of far east-central Arizona will see slight
chances for afternoon storms, generally less than 20%, where
limited monsoon moisture will linger.

Wednesday and beyond...Forecast models are indicating that the
monsoon makes a slow return as high pressure shifts eastward. Our
confidence remains low and any significant return of moisture
appears to hold off until late next week. Therefore, our forecast
is for a gradual uptick in thunderstorm activity with a few hot
and humid days before monsoon activity really kicks in.

&&

.AVIATION...Friday 05/18Z through Saturday 06/18Z...VFR conditions
with NE winds 10-15kts with gusts to 25kts...becoming light and
variable after 04Z.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 06/18Z through Monday 08/18Z...VFR conditions
continue. Expect northerly daytime winds around 10 kts on
Saturday, becoming light and variable overnight. NW winds around
15 kts with gusts to 25 kts on Sunday into Monday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Saturday...Hot conditions, with highs 5-10
degrees above normal. A few showers or storms possible over southern
Apache County on Saturday. Northerly winds 5-15 mph today and
Saturday. Minimum afternoon RH 3-12%, recovering overnight to 15-30%.

Sunday through Tuesday...Hot and dry conditions continue. An
isolated shower or thunderstorm possible on Monday or Tuesday over
the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. North to northwest
winds on Sunday with gusts 20-25 mph; lighter winds on Monday and
Tuesday. Minimum afternoon RH 5-15%, recovering overnight to 15-45%.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Tuesday for
AZZ005-006-037.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ/McCollum
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...BAK

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff