Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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950 FXUS65 KFGZ 062322 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 422 PM MST Sat Jul 6 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Hot and dry conditions will continue for most of northern Arizona into early next week. A slow return of monsoonal moisture is possible toward the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION...through Monday...Hot temperatures and dry conditions continue this weekend as a strong ridge of high pressure remains situated over much of the southwest. Northerly flow aloft keeps any moisture over the lower deserts of southern Arizona, with any chances for precipitation this far north limited to the White Mountains. Afternoon high temperatures through the start of next week will continue to be near 10 degrees F above normal. With the heat, Excessive Heat Warnings remain in effect for elevations below 4000 feet across lower Yavapai, the Grand Canyon, and Lake Powell. Overnight temperatures should still remain fairly cool (nearly several degrees below normal in the high terrain), with a very dry airmass still in place. Tuesday through Friday...High pressure continues to meander it`s way eastward. As this occurs, moisture gradually increases over central Arizona. The majority of the GEFS, EPS and CMCE members look to be in agreement with this gradual uptick in moisture, however the deeper, more widespread moisture still looks looks to remain outside of the forecast period. Nevertheless, chances for showers and thunderstorms begin to increase across mainly the White Mountains and Mogollon Rim as early as Tuesday. Regardless of any precipitation chances, some slight relief from the heat looks probable as the high shifts. Temperatures do still look to remain warm however, especially over the lower elevations. On the contrary, overnight temperatures will increase, with increasing moisture and high- cloud cover limiting the ability for radiational cooling overnight.Trends will continue to be assessed to determine the need for any extension to the current Excessive Heat Warnings. && .AVIATION...Sunday 07/00Z through Monday 08/00Z...VFR conditions. W-NW winds 5-15 kts, becoming light and variable after 02Z. Winds becoming W-NW 15-25 kts after 17Z. OUTLOOK...Monday 08/00Z through Wednesday 10/00Z...VFR conditions continue. Winds NW-N 10-20 kts on Monday and Tuesday. && .FIRE WEATHER...Tonight through Monday...Hot and dry weather continues through Monday. Isolated showers/thunderstorms possible over the White Mountains area each afternoon. North to northwest winds 15-25 mph Sunday, becoming more northerly 5-15 mph on Monday. Minimum RH will be between 3-15%, recovering overnight to 20-40%. Tuesday through Thursday...Hot and dry conditions continue. Isolated showers or thunderstorm will be possible over the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains, spreading northwestward on Wednesday. West to north winds 5-15 mph each day. Minimum RH will be 5-20%, recovering overnight to 25-60%. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Tuesday for AZZ005-006-037. && $$ PUBLIC...Humphreys AVIATION...RR FIRE WEATHER...Meola For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff