Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 041633
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
933 AM MST Thu Jul 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Hot and dry conditions will continue for most of
northern Arizona into early next week. The chance for showers and
storms will be limited to the White Mountains through Monday,
with a slow return of monsoon moisture possible later next week.

&&

.UPDATE...It`s heating up fast out there this morning, already
reaching the low 80s in Flagstaff and over 90 degrees in Prescott.
The Excessive Heat Warning for the lower elevations (below 4000
feet) starts this morning and continues through Monday, for now.
We`ll be looking at the need to extend this a day or two with the
afternoon forecast package.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /348 AM MST/...A strong high pressure system currently
centered just off the California coast will slowly migrate
eastward across the western states over the coming days. High
pressure can be our friend during the monsoon delivering moisture
from the south for daily thunderstorms. The monsoon high generally
approaches from the east. Unfortunately, the high pressure system
we`re observing is heading in from the west which usually
delivers a hot and dry air mass with origins from over the Great
Basin.

From today through Monday...Look for dry conditions with
generally hot days but relatively cool nights as the drier air
mass will allow for decent radiational cooling. The nighttime
cooling will be most prominent from the Mogollon Rim northward but
less so south of the Rim where limited moisture will linger. High
temperatures the next few days will range from 10 to 15 degrees
above normal which translates to very hot. As a result, an
Excessive Heat Warning is in effect for the lower desert regions
of Arizona through at least Monday where temperatures in excess of
110 degrees are likely. The White Mountains of far east-central
will see slight chances for afternoon storms, generally less than
20%, where some monsoon moisture will linger.

Looking at Tuesday Onward...Will the monsoon make a return? The
model averages from this morning say yes but the trend has been
for the models to keep pushing the return further into the future.
So our confidence in next weeks return is low.

&&

.AVIATION...Thursday 04/12Z through Friday 05/12Z...VFR conditions
with N/NW winds around 10 kts, becoming mainly light and variable
after 03Z.

OUTLOOK...Friday 05/12Z through Sunday 07/12Z...VFR conditions
continue. Daytime winds N around 10 kts, becoming light and variable
overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Friday...Dry and hot conditions, with
highs 5-10 degrees above normal. Winds north/northwest 5-10 mph,
becoming north on Friday. Minimum afternoon RH 3-12%, recovering
overnight to 15-30%.

Saturday through Monday...Hot and dry conditions continue. Slight
chances for showers and thunderstorms gradually increasing each day,
mainly over the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. Northerly
winds 10-15 mph, strongest on Sunday with gusts 20-25 mph. Minimum
afternoon RH 5-15%, recovering overnight to 15-45%.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Monday for
AZZ005-006-037.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ/McCollum
AVIATION...Humphreys
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff