Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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941 FXUS65 KFGZ 041714 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1014 AM MST Thu Jul 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Hot and dry conditions will continue for most of northern Arizona into early next week. The chance for showers and storms will be limited to the White Mountains through Monday, with a slow return of monsoon moisture possible later next week. && .UPDATE...It`s heating up fast out there this morning, already reaching the low 80s in Flagstaff and over 90 degrees in Prescott. The Excessive Heat Warning for the lower elevations (below 4000 feet) starts this morning and continues through Monday, for now. We`ll be looking at the need to extend this a day or two with the afternoon forecast package. && .PREV DISCUSSION /348 AM MST/...A strong high pressure system currently centered just off the California coast will slowly migrate eastward across the western states over the coming days. High pressure can be our friend during the monsoon delivering moisture from the south for daily thunderstorms. The monsoon high generally approaches from the east. Unfortunately, the high pressure system we`re observing is heading in from the west which usually delivers a hot and dry air mass with origins from over the Great Basin. From today through Monday...Look for dry conditions with generally hot days but relatively cool nights as the drier air mass will allow for decent radiational cooling. The nighttime cooling will be most prominent from the Mogollon Rim northward but less so south of the Rim where limited moisture will linger. High temperatures the next few days will range from 10 to 15 degrees above normal which translates to very hot. As a result, an Excessive Heat Warning is in effect for the lower desert regions of Arizona through at least Monday where temperatures in excess of 110 degrees are likely. The White Mountains of far east-central will see slight chances for afternoon storms, generally less than 20%, where some monsoon moisture will linger. Looking at Tuesday Onward...Will the monsoon make a return? The model averages from this morning say yes but the trend has been for the models to keep pushing the return further into the future. So our confidence in next weeks return is low. && .AVIATION...Thursday 04/18Z through Friday 05/18Z...VFR conditions with N/NW winds around 10 kts, becoming mainly light and variable after 03Z. KSEZ will have gusty northeast winds (to 25 kts) at night. OUTLOOK...Friday 05/18Z through Sunday 07/18Z...VFR conditions continue. Daytime winds N around 10 kts, becoming light and variable overnight. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Friday...Dry and hot conditions, with highs 5-10 degrees above normal. Winds north/northwest 5-10 mph, becoming north on Friday. Minimum afternoon RH 3-12%, recovering overnight to 15-30%. Saturday through Monday...Hot and dry conditions continue. Slight chances for showers and thunderstorms gradually increasing each day, mainly over the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. Northerly winds 10-15 mph, strongest on Sunday with gusts 20-25 mph. Minimum afternoon RH 5-15%, recovering overnight to 15-45%. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Monday for AZZ005-006-037. && $$ PUBLIC...JJ/McCollum AVIATION...MAS FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff