Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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183 FXUS65 KFGZ 060448 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 948 PM MST Fri Jul 5 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Hot and dry conditions will continue for most of northern Arizona into early next week. A slow return of monsoon moisture is possible toward the middle or end of next week. && .UPDATE...Current satellite imagery shows mostly cloud free skies across northern Arizona this evening. An MCS has developed over northern Sonora in Mexico, but clockwise flow around the high centered over northern California will prevent any moisture associated with the MCS from moving into the area. So, expect a quiet night under clear skies and light winds. Temperatures will be a bit cooler tonight as compared to last night at most places. In general, expect low`s ranging from the mid-40s to mid-60s across the majority of northern Arizona`s High Country. && .PREV DISCUSSION /439 PM MST/...Breezy and very dry north- northeast winds continue early this afternoon. Pressure gradients tightened overnight resulting in these increased breezes, especially just downwind of the higher terrain. Monsoon moisture has been completely scoured out of our forecast area with surface dewpoints ranging from 10-20F for most locations. Temperatures are actually running a few degrees lower than 24 hrs ago along/north of the Mogollon Rim with the northerly flow. South of the rim is warmer though. The very strong ridge continues to be centered over northern California today, and will slowly drift southeast closer to Arizona over the next few days and result in an extended heat wave for the state. A trough moving down through the Rockies will tighten gradients again Sunday across the region with gusty northwest winds 15-20 mph and gusts 25-30 mph expected. The Excessive Heat Warning below 4000 feet continues through Tuesday for now and may need to be extended farther into next week with subsequent shifts. As far as monsoon moisture goes, with the dry northerly flow of the next few days, we removed even the low rain chances in the White Mtns through Monday. Later in the week, some of the guidance shifts the center of high pressure due north or even a bit northeast of our area which could allow for some moisture to move in from the east. It does seem that each day this gets pushed farther into the future, which would require the heat products to be extended. Low PoPs return from the Mogollon Rim south and east Tuesday through the end of the week, but even this could be a bit too aggressive. && .AVIATION...Saturday 06/06Z through Sunday 07/06Z...VFR conditions with mostly clear skies will continue. Light winds overnight except near KSEZ which will see NE 10-20 kts overnight. Winds become W to N at 10-20 kts Saturday afternoon. OUTLOOK...Sunday 07/06Z through Tuesday 09/06Z...VFR conditions continue. W to NW winds increase Sunday to around 15 kts gusting up to 25 kts, and then shift to NW to N on Monday around 10-20 kts. && .FIRE WEATHER...This afternoon through Sunday...Hot conditions, with highs 5-10 degrees above normal. A few showers or storms possible over southern Apache County on Saturday. Northerly winds 5-15 mph today and Saturday. Minimum afternoon RH 3-12%, recovering overnight to 15-30%. Monday through Wednesday...Hot and dry conditions continue. An isolated shower or thunderstorm possible on Tuesday over the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains and spreading northwest on Wednesday. Light winds on Monday becoming westerly 10 to 20 MPH on on Tuesday and Wednesday. Minimum afternoon RH 5-15%, recovering overnight to 15-45%. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Tuesday for AZZ005-006-037. && $$ PUBLIC...RR/JJ AVIATION...MCT FIRE WEATHER...MAS For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff