617
FXUS63 KFGF 070045
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
745 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight with up to 50 mph
  winds and 1" hail.

- Late week heat concerns as highs push into the upper 80s to
  low 90s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 745 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Thunderstorm activity is diminishing this evening, with only a
few isolated showers and storms remaining in west central
Minnesota. Stronger storms could be capable of producing small
hail and funnels, but support for this type of activity is on a
downward trend. Look for this trend to continue through late
this evening, with another chance for mainly scattered showers
overnight. Overall, the forecast remains on track this evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

...Synopsis...

Subtropical ridging centered over Florida will steer TS Beryl north
into the lower Mississippi valley enhancing a belt of mid level
wind though the Ohio Valley and stagnating the overall pattern
across the CONUS this week. Further west building ridging
slowly shifts east from the Pacific coast inland into the
rockies. With this dual high pressure a split jet across the
CONUS with one stretching from the mid-Mississippi Valley into
the northeast and another jet across the northern Canadian
prairies, the northern plains will lie in very weak to
negligible flow aloft through the coming week. This will lead
to high confidence in the synoptic pattern and a persistence
type forecast through at least mid week.

- Today/Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms will continue across eastern North
Dakota this afternoon spreading into Minnesota. Primary forcing
is DCVA ahead of the upper low centered over north central
South Dakota. A band of convection forming along a boundary
extending from SE ND to Southern MN may eventually work into our
west central MN counties where eff shear of ~25 kts should
promote stronger cells capable of near severe thresholds.
Elsewhere expecting things to remain sub-severe. Activity will
generally track east/Northeast with the low and an end time of
around midnight for most activity as the loss of afternoon
heating takes full effect.

Moving through Sunday and into early next week more shower
chances as various pieces of energy move through bringing
enough forcing to give afternoon showers and 10-30% pops
similar to the past few days. Confidence in each day with
regards to evolution and timing is inherently low due to the
weak nature of forcing and subtle influence of any mesoscale
factors such as cloud cover or surface boundaries.

- Late Week Heat

Continuing past Wednesday the western ridging finally progress far
enough east to build low level thermal ridging over us and push
sfc temps into the 80s. Building southerly 850mb flow Thursday
into next weekend on the eastern periphery of this thermal ridge
will promote increased mixing. This is reflected by the low
spread in NBM maxT through the week with <7 degree spread between the
10th and 90th percentile any given day between now and Friday
at a given point. Area highs climbing from the 70s and 80s today
to upper 80s and even a few low 90s for some by the end of the
week. HeatRisk (found at wpc.ncep.noa.gov/heatrisk) is already
showing a broad chunk of the area under a moderate risk of
health related impacts for Friday and Saturday due to these
warm temps. Will continue to monitor the need for heat related
headlines come later this week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 630 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue across
portions of the area, with KBJI and KDVL seeing the greatest
chance for activity over the next several hours. Ceilings are
expected maintain VFR thresholds through the period; however,
occasional reductions to visibility are possible during shower
activity. Winds will be generally light through the TAF period.
Another round of showers and thunderstorms is possible Sunday
afternoon as an upper low continues to slowly move through the
area.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Lynch
DISCUSSION...TT
AVIATION...Lynch